Two years after the explosion of enthusiasm for batteries, the Romanian energy storage market seems to have reached saturation point – not in the sense of a halt in investment, but of an accelerated maturation that separates feasible ideas from speculative dreams. In a direct and realistic intervention, Cosmin Cheran, CEO of Think Blue Solutions, offered a much more nuanced view compared to the general optimism: “From our point of view, the storage market today, on the development side, is closing down. Already once every two months more than 4 GW are approved; in the last three months more than 4 GW of storage have been approved”, he said at the conference “Energy Transition Cluj-Napoca 2025”, organized by Energynomics together with the Romanian-German Chamber of Commerce and Industry – AHK Romania.

This phrase describes the entry into a new phase: the pace of project approvals has outstripped the real need of the system. Behind the figures lies a structural truth: the portfolio of approved projects has filled up, a sign that the pace of development has outstripped the real capacity for connection.

For a long time now, “approved” no longer means “viable”. The fact that a project has obtained an ATR only indicates the approved power (in MW), not the available energy (MWh), and in no way guarantees actual construction. Next comes the connection contract (CR), which requires a new 5% guarantee, and then the execution phase, where many developers get bogged down.

“Right now, the market is naturally filtering,” Cheran explains. “The 5% guarantees for the ATR and another 5% for the connection contract are starting to discourage unfunded projects.” This mechanism has become a form of market hygiene, tempering the “noise” that used to be generated by hundreds of companies filing applications just to reserve their place in the grid.

For this reason, Think Blue Solutions’ estimate for the coming years is cautious: “We won’t have more than 5 GW commissioned by 2026,” says Cheran, and he notes that he is talking about total installed capacity. It’s a realistic assessment, given that large 2-3 GW parks in the same location “no longer make sense”. The national grid, he says, “no longer allows for 300-400 MW injections into the same nodes”, and 400 kV lines cut on demand remain just a dream.

“Banks are more cautious, not reluctant”

One of Cosmin Cheran’s more subtle observations concerns the change of tone on funding: there is more caution in the storage area. “Since August there has been a slowdown, a more reserved attitude.”

The reason is not a lack of confidence in technology, but the political and economic context. “The political situation in Romania has greatly influenced any investment and has blocked almost everything. The current ratings affect us all, not just the renewable industry, but the whole economic chain.”

Cheran’s speech is symptomatic of a market that is beginning to recognize its limits. The exuberant phase of grants and mass applications is coming to an end. A period is coming when the seriousness of the applications, the solidity of the capital and technical expertise will decide who stays in the game.

From the dream of gigawatts to the logic of bankable portfolios

“The big parks that people still dream about are kind of closed. There’s no point in doing 2-3 GW in the same location,” says Cheran. In their place, Think Blue Solutions proposes a different logic: “distributed generation” and modular portfolios tailored to real infrastructure.

The company is currently working on more than 1.2 GW in development, and not just in a declarative way. “Our projects are tangible, they are managed by us. In most of them we are also shareholders. The difference will be the step towards construction.” This statement summarizes the essence of the new phase: between an ATR dossier and a functional battery there is a long road, which goes through bankability, equipment, qualified teams and the relationship with grid operators.

If 2024-2025 is the period of natural selection, the years 2026-2028 will bring market consolidation with the development of the flexibility market and new 15-minute interval dimming products. Batteries will no longer be just an element of “local balancing” but a tool for economic optimization.

“Storage is not a fad, but a necessity for all producers,” says Cheran, confirming the trend already observed in Central Europe. In Romania, this transformation will manifest itself in three clear directions:

• Hybridization of existing parks, where batteries will make it possible to bid “firm” into the market and avoid imbalance penalties;
• Entering a revenue stack model – DAM/ID arbitrage, balancing services and profile-adjusted PPAs;
• Development of local flexibility markets, where storage units will be remunerated for quick voltage and frequency adjustments.

In this perspective, the 5 GW that Cheran sees installed by 2026 is not the end, but the beginning of a new economic logic. From then on, it is not size that will matter, but functionality and grid integration.

Cosmin Cheran’s reserved tone is not to be confused with pessimism. On the contrary, it is a sign of maturing. “We are in a market where a lot of investors have come from related fields, wanting to make a quick buck. But we, who are energy engineers, know it doesn’t really work like that.”

This phrase contains perhaps the most important message of the 2024 market: energy is not a game of opportunity, but a long-term discipline. Storage is now entering a phase of natural selection, in which those who understand the grid and the risks will prevail.

After all, as Cheran suggests, the market only “closes” for those who have opened it without understanding it – for the others, it is only just starting to really function.

The conference “Energy Transition Cluj-Napoca 2025” was organized by Energynomics together with the Romanian-German Chamber of Commerce and Industry – AHK Romania, with the support of our partners: Elektra Renewable Support, BCR, Elnos, EnergoBit, Lemetal, MET Romania Energy, ThinkBlu Solution, Wiren.