The World Bank forecasts 0.4% growth for Romania’s economy this year, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, respectively, revising previous estimates downwards. In the same period, Bulgaria grows by 3%, 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, and Poland, our benchmark country, by 3.2%, 3% and 2.9%, respectively. Thus, in the statistics presented by the World Bank, containing over 20 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia, including Turkey and Russia (+0.8%), Romania will have the weakest performance in 2025, below Russia and the Republic of Moldova (+1.5%) and Belarus (+1.9%).
Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) has slowed, but the region has remained resilient in the face of ongoing global and regional challenges, according to the World Bank’s latest Economic Outlook for Europe and Central Asia: “Jobs and Prosperity.”
Regional GDP is expected to grow by 2.4 percent in real terms this year, down from 3.7 percent in 2024, mainly due to a slower pace of expansion in the Russian Federation. Excluding Russia, which accounts for about 40 percent of the region’s output, growth is likely to remain broadly unchanged at around 3.3 percent this year and next.
“Developing economies in the region need to undertake bold reforms to translate resilience into stronger productivity growth, with outcomes and jobs that are adapted to the region’s demographic changes, capitalizing on its natural advantages,” said Antonella Bassani, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia. “It is important for countries to strengthen their private sector, improve education, and better connect internationally, regionally, and domestically, while attracting private capital. The challenge in the region is to create opportunities in the labor market and transform low-skilled jobs into quality jobs.”
Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) has slowed, but the region has remained resilient in the face of ongoing global and regional challenges. Regional gross domestic product is likely to grow by 2.4% in real terms this year, down from 3.7% in 2024, due to a weaker pace of expansion in the Russian Federation. Excluding Russia, which accounts for about 40% of the region’s output, growth is likely to remain flat at around 3.3% this year and next. Growth in Turkey and Poland is set to strengthen to 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively, supported by strong consumer demand and robust investment growth. The pace of economic expansion in Central Asia – the fastest-growing subregion in ECA for the third consecutive year – is projected to strengthen to 5.9% in 2025, from 5.7% last year, driven by higher oil production in Kazakhstan, higher remittances, and higher public and private investment spending.
Private consumption remains the main driver of economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, although its pace is moderating as real wage growth moderates and job creation slows. Strong credit growth – particularly in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, the Western Balkans and Turkey – continues to support household demand. In many countries, investment has supported growth, supported by public spending on infrastructure and defence and increased foreign direct investment flows. Exports are recovering modestly, as global trade policy uncertainty affects supply chains and puts pressure on automotive suppliers in Central Europe and the Western Balkans.
The ECA region is expected to grow modestly, averaging 2.6% in 2026-2027. In Russia, growth is likely to weaken further, to 0.8% next year, before accelerating slightly to 1% in 2027. In contrast, economic expansion in Turkey is expected to continue to gain momentum, reaching 4.4% in 2027. Private consumption, supported by wages, remittances and social transfers, continued infrastructure spending and a gradual recovery in trade outside Russia are likely to support growth across the region. However, there are substantial downside risks. Slow progress in advancing structural reforms has limited the scope for a recovery in productivity growth and accelerating convergence towards high-income status. Trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as persistent inflationary pressures, have also heightened the region’s vulnerabilities.
