Since the beginning of the political crisis, the leu has depreciated by about 3.5%; the price of gasoline has increased by 5.1%, the price of diesel has increased by 8.4%, the SPOT price of gas on BRM has increased by 2.6%, the SPOT price of electricity on OPCOM has increased by 15.2%, claims Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Smart Energy Association (AEI).

“Romania has entered a dangerous circle: political instability weakens economic confidence, and the increase in energy prices fuels inflation and social tensions. In a period when energy security should be consolidated, the political crisis risks transforming energy into a new major source of national vulnerability,” claims the analyst.

The fall of the Government led by Ilie Bolojan on May 5, 2026 has rapid effects on the Romanian energy market by increasing economic uncertainty.

Specifically, the impact is seen in several directions:

• The risk of energy and gas price increases increases. The political crisis has weakened the leu and increased pressure on the euro exchange rate. Energy, gas and fuels are strongly influenced by external prices expressed in euros or dollars. A weaker leu means higher costs for imports and implicitly pressure on consumer bills.
• Investors are becoming more cautious. The energy sector depends on massive investments in networks, production and storage. In the context of an interim government, large projects may be postponed because companies do not know what fiscal and energy policies will follow. This also affects renewable energy projects and energy transport infrastructure.
• Delays in reforms and European funds. Romania needs reforms to access European funds and to modernize the energy system. Political instability may delay the PNRR milestones and investments in green energy, storage and infrastructure. Reuters explicitly mentions the risk related to access to approximately 10 billion euros of EU funds.
• Volatility on the stock market and in energy companies. Companies such as Hidroelectrica, Romgaz or OMV Petrom are sensitive to political changes because the state influences market regulation. Investors fear:

o tax changes,

o new caps,

o political interventions in prices,

o changes in management.

• The risk of populist measures increases. In times of instability, parties tend to promote populist measures regarding energy: extended caps, additional taxes on companies or postponing market liberalization. In the short term, these may calm the population, but in the long term they reduce investments and increase imbalances.
• Already existing structural problems are getting worse. Romania already has one of the highest real burdens of energy costs in the EU compared to income. A political crisis reduces the state’s ability to respond effectively to these problems.

In the short run, the energy market reacts mainly by:

• currency depreciation,
• decreased investor confidence,
• postponement of projects,
• increased risk perception.

In the medium term, the effect depends on how quickly a new stable government will be formed and whether Romania maintains its pro-European direction and investments in energy infrastructure.

”Since the beginning of the political crisis, the leu has depreciated by about 3.5%; the price of gasoline has increased by 5.1%, the price of diesel has increased by 8.4%, the SPOT price of gas on BRM has increased by 2.6%, the SPOT price of electricity on OPCOM has increased by 15.2%.”

Scenario 1. What will happen in two weeks without a new Government

The fall of the Bologna Government at a time of economic and regional fragility is not just a political crisis. For the energy market, this means the beginning of a period of uncertainty that can directly affect the cost of electricity, gas and fuel for the population and companies.

Energy markets do not wait for the outcome of political negotiations. They react immediately to risk. And Romania is sending today exactly the signal that investors are avoiding: instability, lack of direction and the possibility of unpredictable economic decisions.

Scenario 2. What will happen in a month, if a PSD–AUR Government is installed

Here the risk is not economic, but of external credibility, the markets could anticipate more interventionist policies, tensions with the EU and delays in funds/reforms. The crisis is already putting pressure on accessing billions of euros in European funds.

The prospect of a possible PSD–AUR government raises additional questions, not necessarily through ideology, but through the perception of risk. The markets do not tax political discourses, but the lack of confidence in the stability of economic decisions.

“Romania has entered a dangerous circle: political instability weakens economic confidence, and rising energy prices fuel inflation and social tensions. At a time when energy security should be consolidated, the political crisis risks transforming energy into a new major source of national vulnerability,” concluded the AEI analyst.

Autor: Bogdan Tudorache

Active in the economic and business press for the past 26 years, Bogdan graduated Law and then attended intensive courses in Economics and Business English. He went up to the position of editor-in-chief since 2006 and has provided management and editorial policy for numerous economic publications dedicated especially to the community of foreign investors in Romania. From 2003 to 2013 he was active mainly in the financial-banking sector. He started freelancing for Energynomics in 2013, notable for his advanced knowledge of markets, business communities and a mature editorial style, both in Romanian and English.