Moldova aims to invest €43 billion in energy by 2050, according to the draft National Energy Strategy. The document outlines the directions for transforming the energy sector, with the aim of reducing dependence on imports, integrating the country into the European market and aligning the national economy with European decarbonization and energy security objectives. The Ministry of Energy in Chisinau has presented the draft Energy Strategy up to 2050; the document can be consulted on the particip.gov.md portal at https://shorturl.at/6Bh3Y.
How investment will be targeted
The bulk of the financial resources will be absorbed by transport, where costs exceed €17.5 billion to switch to electric and alternative solutions. Buildings, which account for a significant share of energy consumption, will benefit from around €9bn for renovation and rehabilitation, as well as for the installation of modern heating and cooling systems. In parallel, almost €5.5bn is earmarked for the thermal sector to develop decarbonized capacity and €8.5bn will be directed towards new power generation. The strategy is based on the idea that these investments are sustainable: gas savings and lower operating costs will gradually offset the initial financial effort, with benefits estimated at more than €1 billion per year after 2050.
How projects will be funded
The document does not specifically specify each source of funding, but outlines clear mechanisms for mobilizing capital. A significant part will come from private investment, supported by a stable legislative framework and integration into the European market, designed to give clear signals to investors for clean technologies and energy infrastructure. The government is counting on European funds dedicated to the energy transition, including mechanisms already available to candidate countries, such as the recently approved €1.9 billion Reform and Growth Facility, as well as financing programs that will become available with EU accession. International financial institutions – the World Bank, EBRD, EIB – are also expected to play an important role in supporting strategic projects. In addition, the economy itself will generate additional resources by reducing energy imports: funds that today feed the external bill will gradually turn into domestic capital for investment.
Strategic targets for 2050
The government’s vision is ambitious: Moldova aims to achieve climate neutrality by reducing net emissions to zero. External energy dependence, currently at over 77%, would fall to 40%, while the share of electricity in final consumption would rise to 65%, from just 12% in 2023. At least 80% of domestic energy production will come from renewable sources and 85% of electricity consumption will be provided by zero emission technologies. The energy intensity of the economy would be reduced by almost five times and 40% of the building stock would be renovated to almost eliminate emissions from the sector. In transport, more than half of freight will be taken by rail, main corridors will be electrified and clean mobility will become the norm.
Economic and social impact
Estimates show that Moldova’s GDP could reach around €50 billion in 2050, almost three times more than the €16.7 billion recorded in 2023. World Bank projections point to average annual growth of 3.9% until 2040, with a subsequent slowdown to below 3%, but optimistic scenarios based on accelerated reforms and European integration suggest the potential for a pace above 5%. Economic developments are closely linked to the energy transformation, which will reduce the external import bill, increase productivity and open new markets for private investment.
Modernizing the energy system is presented not just as a technical reform, but as an engine for economic and social resilience. Consumer costs will be more stable, competitiveness will increase and the energy transition will bring new jobs and better living conditions. For the Republic of Moldova, this process not only means technological modernization, but also an essential condition for economic and political convergence with the European Union.