The Republic of Moldova could register an economic growth of approximately 2% this year and an average inflation of 8.1%, declared on Monday the governor of the National Bank of Moldova, Anca Dragu, at a specialized conference.
“In the summer of 2025, we started reducing the monetary policy rate and reached 5% with this variable. The start of the new shock in terms of energy and oil prices finds us in the inflation targeting corridor, with a monetary policy rate of 5%. Unfortunately, we see in March and April that inflation accelerates from this external pressure, as you said, factors that we have little control over, so that inflation in April reaches 6.7%, which also leads to an increase in the monetary policy rate. Currently, after the last monetary policy decision, this core rate in the economy is at 6.5%. The most recent estimates show that the average inflation rate for 2026 could be somewhere just above 8%, respectively 8.1%, a significant increase compared to the initial forecast, before the conflict in Iran, of approximately 4.7%. I was telling you, however, that 2025 was a very good economic year. Despite that moment at the beginning of the year, the crisis, which market evolution shows that we managed in a credible manner, made the banks, banking activity and the economy continue strong, leading to this economic growth of 2.4% in 2025, with investments of 22%. Despite these initial problems, 2025 is a year favorable for economic growth, and for 2026 we see economic growth somewhere around 2% and, as I was saying, an average inflation of 8.1%”, said Anca Dragu, according to Agerpres.
She specified that, in 2025, Moldova went through an energy crisis that other states have not experienced.
“In 2025, the supply of electricity will practically change completely. From the supply in the Transnistrian area, we will start to supply electricity from the European Union and Romania. We had a significant shock to prices. In January 2025, we have a 75% increase in electricity prices, 27% in natural gas prices and 40% in thermal energy prices. In the face of these shocks, the National Bank of Moldova almost doubled the monetary policy rate and, of course, this was felt a little in the first quarter of 2025,” said Anca Dragu.
For his part, Dan Costin Nițescu, advisor to the governor of the National Bank of Moldova, stated that inflation in our country was influenced by exogenous shocks. He explained that the fundamentals on the basis of which the monetary policy decision was made in May show that both next year and the year after will re-enter the inflation target.
From the perspective of the credit channel, he stated that the private sector is accelerating slightly, and the share of the lei component has stabilized at 67.8%.
The Board of Directors (BoD) of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) decided, during its meeting on May 15, to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per annum.