UniCredit has revised Romania’s economic growth to 0.2% for the current year, compared to 1% in the previous round, according to a report submitted to the Bucharest Stock Exchange, consulted by Energynomics. At the same time, the quality of loans granted to companies deteriorated, with the non-performing loan (NPL) rate increasing to 5.6%, amid a weaker economic environment and increasing pressures on the financial position of Romanian companies.

“We have revised down the estimated economic growth rate for this year to a marginal 0.2%, from 1% in the previous forecast round, while maintaining the growth estimate of 2.3% for 2027. Downside risks for industry and agriculture persist if the adverse effects of energy shocks are prolonged. Agriculture also remains highly dependent on weather conditions and may generate surprises. Meanwhile, construction is accelerating and remains the main driver of economic growth. The absorption of European funds is essential (given that Romania can access up to EUR 8 billion through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) until August 2026, approximately EUR 23 billion from the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and EUR 16.6 billion through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE), funds that will be mainly directed towards infrastructure, but will also support other investments),” UniCredit’s semi-annual report states. Bank submitted to ASF and BVB.

As of March 2026, the banking sector remained resilient, with capital adequacy and liquidity indicators comfortably above minimum regulatory requirements and above the EU average. The most recent stress testing exercise also confirmed the banking sector’s capacity to absorb adverse macroeconomic shocks without jeopardizing financial stability. Banking sector profitability remained solid, although it moderated compared to the previous year. The sector recorded a net profit of RON 3.4 billion in Q1 2026, compared to RON 3.7 billion in Q1 2025, while profitability indicators remained at comfortable levels, with ROA of 1.4% and ROE of 14.1% as of March 2026. Operational efficiency also remained high, with a cost/income ratio of 52%, but profitability continues to be affected by the additional turnover tax and the challenging macroeconomic environment.

Asset quality remained generally solid, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the banking sector level standing at 2.8% in March 2026, along with a provision coverage ratio of 63.6%, well above the EU average. Developments across borrower segments were mixed. The quality of loans to households improved, with the NPL ratio falling to 2.9%, reflecting the continued resilience of the retail sector. At the same time, the quality of loans to businesses deteriorated, with the NPL ratio rising to 5.6%, amid a weaker economic environment and increasing pressures on companies’ financial positions. Certain segments continue to present higher risk profiles, including SME financing, state-guaranteed corporate loans and exposures in the commercial real estate segment, the report also shows.

The total balance of loans reached RON 465 billion in May 2026, with the annual growth rate slowing to 7.7% from 9.7% in May 2025. Lending activity faced moderate difficulties at the beginning of the year, but growth was supported by strong demand from companies for foreign currency loans, including a favorable effect on the existing loan stock due to the depreciation of the leu against the euro and the solid advance of local currency loans, followed by slower, but still robust, demand from the population. The weaker lending activity compared to 2025 was mainly caused by the effects of fiscal adjustment measures, local political and geopolitical uncertainties, but also by the decrease in real wages, in the context of maintaining high inflation levels. For the second half of 2026, we estimate a slight recovery in credit appetite, on the back of higher wage growth and lower inflation due to favorable base effects, along with improving macroeconomic conditions as the negative effects of the fiscal adjustment fade.

UniCredit Romania Group recorded a consolidated net profit of 909.8 million lei in the first half of the year, up 7.11% compared to the same period last year, while consolidated operating income advanced by 31.67%, to 2.46 billion lei. Lending accelerated in both the corporate and individual segments, on the back of new financing volumes above the level of H1 2025.

Autor: Bogdan Tudorache

Active in the economic and business press for the past 26 years, Bogdan graduated Law and then attended intensive courses in Economics and Business English. He went up to the position of editor-in-chief since 2006 and has provided management and editorial policy for numerous economic publications dedicated especially to the community of foreign investors in Romania. From 2003 to 2013 he was active mainly in the financial-banking sector. He started freelancing for Energynomics in 2013, notable for his advanced knowledge of markets, business communities and a mature editorial style, both in Romanian and English.