Middle-income countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are dependent on imported hydrocarbons for 57% of their final energy consumption, according to a report published by S&P Global.
The seven economies included in the report – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia (CEE5), Serbia and Turkey – represent a combined GDP of around $4 trillion, an economy roughly the size of Japan.
In S&P’s base case scenario, the price of a barrel of Brent oil will average $80 in 2026 and fall to $65 in 2027, so the negative effect on sovereign ratings in CEE seems manageable, according to Agerpres.
In the stress scenario (Brent oil price will be $130 per barrel in 2026 and will fall to $100 in 2027), energy-intensive and import-dependent economies will likely be hit the hardest, the effect depending on the availability of capital reserves and the authorities’ responses.
S&P assigns Romania a “BBB minus” rating, with a negative outlook. The agency’s previous forecasts indicated an inflation rate of 6.8% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027 and 3% in 2028 for Romania. The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP was estimated at 6.6% in 2026, 5.9% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2028, while the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was forecast at 6.4% in 2026, 5% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2028. Economic growth was expected to be 0.7% this year, 2.3% next year and 2% in 2028.
In S&P’s base case scenario, in which the price of a barrel of Brent oil averages $80 in 2026 and falls to $65 in 2027, Romania would have a inflation rate of 7.3% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027 and 3.8% in 2028. The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP was expected to be 7% in 2026, 6% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2028, while the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was forecast at 6.5% in 2026, 5.5% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2028. Economic growth was expected to be 0.2% this year, 2.7% next year and 2.3% in 2028.
In the stress scenario, where the price of a barrel of Brent oil is $130 in 2026 and falls to $100 in 2027, Romania would have an inflation rate of 9% in 2026, 6% in 2027 and 4% in 2028. The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP was expected to be 8.2% in 2026, 7.4% in 2026 and 7.3% in 2028, while the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was forecast at 7.7% in 2026, 6.5% in 2026 and 6% in 2028. The economy is expected to decline by 1% this year, growing to 2.5% next year and 2% in 2028.
This week, the price of a barrel of Brent North Sea oil for delivery in May rose by as much as 4% to almost $117, after being below $60 in January.
If natural gas prices reach near their 2022 peak, which is not part of the energy scenarios, the negative effects on CEE economies and the pressures on ratings will be broader and more pronounced, S&P warns.
The effects of the oil stress scenario on CEE sovereign ratings are non-linear and depend on the availability of capital reserves and the responses of the authorities. Those with significant domestic power generation capacity, such as Romania, or a significant coal mix, such as Poland, may face less pronounced macroeconomic implications. In Romania’s case, however, weaker GDP growth and tax revenues could reduce political support for fiscal consolidation.
The hardest hit are likely to be energy-intensive and import-dependent economies, including Turkey, Hungary and Slovakia. S&P’s ratings for Hungary and Slovakia already have negative outlooks, partly reflecting risks to public finances from high exposure to commodity price volatility.
Unlike Hungary and Slovakia, where the saving rate is high, Turkey’s balance of payments position will be severely affected in the severe scenario. High inflation, fragile public confidence in the national currency and the National Bank’s modest foreign exchange reserves put pressure on Turkey’s relatively low “BB minus” rating.