The decision of the Fitch agency to maintain Romania’s sovereign rating at BBB minus, with a negative outlook, reconfirms confidence in the Government’s measures and plans, believes the Minister of Finance, Alexandru Nazare.
“Fitch’s decision, in a sensitive fiscal and budgetary context, reconfirms confidence in the measures and plans of the Romanian Government – both for respecting fiscal consolidation commitments towards external partners and for ensuring the sustainability of public finances”, said Nazare, quoted in a press release from the Ministry of Finance.
The international financial rating agency Fitch reconfirmed, on Friday night, Romania’s sovereign rating at BBB-/F3 for long-term and short-term foreign currency debt, but maintained the negative outlook, according to Agerpres.
The decision to reconfirm the sovereign rating is supported, in the agency’s opinion, by the European Union membership and capital inflows from the European Union that support real income convergence and external financing, as well as by the positive evolution of GDP per capita and governance indicators, which are at higher levels than countries in the same rating category (“BBB”).
According to the cited source, the negative outlook reflects, in the agency’s opinion, the significant deterioration of Romania’s public finances, highlighted by a large fiscal deficit and a rapid increase in the public debt ratio as a percentage of GDP.
“The strengths that led to the maintenance of the rating and outlook are balanced against the large and persistent deficits of the state budget and current account, the rapid increase in public debt, political polarization and a rather high external debt position. Fitch’s forecasts highlight an estimated economic growth of 0.7% in 2025 (similar to 2024) and a growth rate of approximately 1.2% in 2026 and 2027, supported by EU funds and the recovery of the euro area economy,” the MF press release also states.
Regarding the evolution of public debt, Fitch forecasts that it will reach from 55% of GDP at the end of 2024, to 63.4% of GDP in 2027 and that it is possible to reach 70% by 2029.