Romania’s pipeline of renewable energy projects continues to grow rapidly, with tens of gigawatts of solar, wind and storage developments announced or in different stages of permitting. Yet the scale of these projects raises a fundamental question: does the Romanian power system actually need that much new capacity? According to Martin Moise, vice-president at PATRES, discussions about the sector tend to focus almost exclusively on production capacity, while the demand side of the electricity market receives far less attention.
“What do you do with 70 gigawatts of projects? Nothing, because we don’t need that much, there is no consumption for that,” he said, at Energynomics Day, on the premises of the Green Energy Expo & Romenvirotec, pointing to the mismatch that is beginning to emerge in the market.
On a typical early spring day, Romania’s electricity consumption is around 5.5 GW. At the same time, photovoltaic parks alone can already generate around 2 GW during sunny hours, without including rooftop systems installed by prosumers and companies for self-consumption. If those behind-the-meter installations were added to the visible solar production, the total output would be roughly double. This growing volume of solar generation is already affecting market prices. Even during the last weekend of February, technically still winter, Romania recorded negative electricity prices during the middle of the day on both Saturday and Sunday, and, according to Moise, this is a signal that supply is temporarily exceeding demand.
For investors and developers, this situation could become a turning point. Many solar projects may need to be redesigned to remain economically viable in a market where daytime electricity prices are increasingly volatile. Storage is likely to become a critical component of future projects. Without batteries or other flexibility solutions, photovoltaic plants may struggle to operate profitably, particularly during weekends or periods of high solar output, when prices can fall sharply or turn negative.
The phenomenon known as “cannibalization” is already visible in the photovoltaic market. As more solar capacity enters the system, it tends to reduce prices precisely during the hours when solar plants generate the most electricity. The rapid expansion of rooftop solar also contributes to this effect, because each megawatt installed by prosumers reduces the need for new large-scale power plants. Developers must also consider constraints related to grid connections. Some projects that appear viable on paper face significant additional costs because connection permits require expensive grid reinforcements. In certain cases, the cost of upgrading network infrastructure can exceed the investment required for the energy project itself, raising doubts about the financial feasibility of developments.
Battery storage projects face similar challenges. Banks are still cautious when evaluating these investments, partly because the financial models and revenue streams for battery systems are still evolving. If grid reinforcement requirements significantly increase the total capital expenditure, lenders may refuse financing. The way grid capacity has been allocated in recent years has also contributed to the current situation. Under the previous “first come, first served” system for connection permits, many projects secured grid access early in the development process. Some of these projects may never be built, yet they continue to occupy valuable network capacity.
Another structural issue is the separation between different types of energy projects. In many cases, wind farms, solar parks and battery storage systems have been developed as standalone projects, rather than integrated into hybrid facilities. According to market participants, combining technologies at the same site could significantly reduce grid connection costs and improve overall efficiency. Ultimately, the evolution of Romania’s renewable energy sector will depend on demand growth as much as on new capacity. Electrification of transport, expansion of data centers and broader industrial development could gradually increase electricity consumption, but the pace of that growth remains uncertain.
Until then, the market itself is likely to determine which of the many announced projects will move forward. While reports mention pipelines of tens of gigawatts, only a fraction of these developments are expected to reach construction and long-term operation, Moise added.
The conference Energynomics Day was organized by Energynomics, on the premises of the Green Energy Expo & Romenvirotec, with the support of our partners: Elektra Renewable Support, Baringa, Big Store, Think Blu Solution.