Romania has thousands of megawatts of renewable energy projects announced or in development, but the real challenge for the sector is no longer the number of projects or the permits obtained. The key issue has become the actual maturity and bankability of these investments. According to Zoltan Nagy‑Bege, Energy Market Department Director at CIGA Energy Advisory, the traditional way of assessing whether a project is mature is no longer sufficient, even when developers hold most of the required authorizations.
„Not just the megawatts are what count, but the megawatt-hours, meaning how those projects will be operated, how they will enter the market and what strategy they will have in a rapidly changing energy market,” Bege stated at Energynomics Day, on the premises of the Green Energy Expo & Romenvirotec.
An analysis of renewable energy projects in Romania shows that many developments appear advanced on paper. Numerous projects already hold grid connection permits, grid connection agreements, building permits and even establishment permits issued by the energy regulator. In some cases, developers have also indicated that financing has been secured. However, these indicators do not necessarily guarantee that a project will be built or that it is fully mature. A recent example involved the withdrawal of an establishment permit after the final binding financing was not secured. In total, about 7 GW of projects across different technologies in Romania currently hold establishment permits, which theoretically means financing should be in place, yet not all of them can be considered fully viable.
Market conditions have also changed significantly in recent years, particularly for photovoltaic projects. Solar energy production is highly exposed to market price fluctuations during daytime hours, when generation peaks and electricity prices can fall sharply. As a result, developers must now design more complex commercial strategies to remain competitive and financeable. According to Bege, lenders have become more cautious as well. Pure merchant exposure (selling electricity entirely at market prices) is no longer considered acceptable by many financing institutions. Instead, banks increasingly expect developers to adopt multi-market strategies and more sophisticated power purchase agreements (PPAs), including profile-based contracts tailored to the generation patterns of solar power plants.
Storage is another component gaining importance, although the sector is still emerging and financing remains difficult. Batteries or contracted storage capacity can help renewable projects manage volatility and optimize revenues, but banks are still learning how to evaluate these business models.
The Romanian energy system is also entering a period of structural change, Bege added. Planned outages, such as the shutdown of Unit 1 at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant, which will temporarily remove around 700 MW from the market, will increase the need for flexible generation capacity. Gas-fired power plants are expected to play a significant role in replacing this capacity, while smaller projects of 50 to 150 MW are already under development. At the same time, the electricity mix will need to balance multiple technologies. Solar, wind, gas, batteries and smaller hydro projects will all contribute to system stability as the market evolves.
Meanwhile, regulatory changes are adding further uncertainty. Starting in 2025, Romania introduced a new grid connection framework based on capacity allocation auctions, although a transition period still applies to projects that submitted solution studies before the end of last year. This means the market may remain unclear for several months until Transelectrica publishes updated grid capacity data and connection studies.
Rumors suggest that projects totaling as much as 60–70 GW of solar, wind and storage capacity may have applied for grid solutions under the previous rules. Yet, as with the currently announced pipeline, only a fraction of these projects are expected to reach construction, Bege added. For investors, the current environment presents both opportunity and uncertainty, but with limited visibility on which projects will ultimately be realized, the coming months are expected to reshape the market and determine which developments are truly mature, bankable and ready to deliver electricity to Romania’s grid.
The conference Energynomics Day was organized by Energynomics, on the premises of the Green Energy Expo & Romenvirotec, with the support of our partners: Elektra Renewable Support, Baringa, Big Store, Think Blu Solution.