Going to war with Iran promised to change the Middle East by weakening a promiscuous regime and thwarting its nuclear ambitions. For its most optimistic supporters, the war would also change the world by intimidating a rising China. It would show how America’s control of the flow of oil leaves China vulnerable. And it would increase deterrence by contrasting America’s military supremacy with China’s reluctance or inability to rescue its states from its circle of influence, writes The Economist.
A month after the war began, this logic still seems flawed and arrogant. Certainly it does from Beijing. The Economist spoke to diplomats, advisers, scholars, experts and current and former Chinese officials. Almost all see the war as a grave American mistake. China has stood aside, they say, because its leaders understand the maxim attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, supposedly uttered as its enemies were abandoning the high ground at Austerlitz: “Never interrupt your enemy when he makes a mistake.”
How Iran is profiting from Donald Trump’s war
The Iran war is hurting China less than its rivals, but more than the country admits.
Many Chinese say the war will accelerate America’s decline. They see American aggression as validation of President Xi Jinping’s focus on security over economic growth. And they expect peace, when it comes, to create opportunities for China to exploit. Only in the background is there anxiety—and a hint of a possible Chinese miscalculation.
First, the overriding view in Beijing is that America is attacking Iran because it feels its power is waning. Like Britain in the 19th century, its formidable display of military force contrasts with its lack of purpose or restraint. President Donald Trump has rejected expert advice. He has issued wild threats and, as this was published, was about to address the nation in the midst of talk of withdrawal. His lack of strategy has set America up for failure.
Chinese experts hope the war will amplify talk of decline. Mr. Trump’s musings about a ground operation are a sign of how easily one ill-conceived step can lead to the next. If Iran descends into chaos or the regime remains in power, America could spend years fighting outbreaks in the Middle East. If Iran pursues nuclear weapons, Uncle Sam could go to war again.
All of this would distract America from East Asia, where, if China has its way, the 21st century will be shaped. This war will also worry countries that depend on America. Not only has their ally become less reliable, but it is paying for its obstinacy in energy and expensive raw materials. Will Asian countries therefore become more cautious about offending China?
Second, Chinese officials believe the war demonstrates the wisdom of Mr. Xi’s emphasis on promoting self-sufficiency in technology and goods, even when those efforts have come at the expense of economic growth (which remains stubbornly and wastefully below its potential). Mr. Xi has worked hard to protect China from the shutdowns. He has built up a strategic reserve of 1.3 billion barrels of crude oil, enough for several months. He has diversified energy production to nuclear, solar, and wind power while maintaining the use of domestically mined coal. China is characteristically pragmatic, facilitating Iran’s oil trade.
Mr. Xi has also invested in his own choke points as a deterrent against America. Last year, after Mr. Trump escalated tariffs, he threatened to restrict supplies of rare earths, vital for electronics and green technology. While that leverage will diminish as America finds alternative sources, Mr. Xi is already seeking new choke points, including vital pharmaceutical molecules, some chips, and logistics. He wants China to dominate new technologies such as quantum computing and robotics.
Ultimately, war will create opportunities. Gulf countries and Iran will bid for lucrative reconstruction contracts. Many countries worried about future embargoes in the Strait of Hormuz will want to buy Chinese green technology, including equipment from solar, wind, and battery makers—all of which have excess capacity. While America blows hot and cold, China’s cynical self-interest is at least trustworthy.
China also believes it can exploit America. Weakened on Iran, it may find it easier to negotiate with Mr. Trump. At its summit with Mr. Xi in Beijing in May, China hopes to lay the groundwork for a deal that would limit America’s use of tariffs and export controls and eventually create a framework for Chinese investment in America. Ideally, for China, Mr. Trump would say that America opposes Taiwan independence and supports peaceful unification—a shift from the studied ambiguity of Henry Kissinger’s original formulation. China’s optimism, however, is tempered by anxiety. Experts are surprised by the way the U.S. military is using artificial intelligence to coordinate operations. This is yet another reason to reject the idea that Mr. Xi is eager to invade Taiwan. As Iran has shown, war is unpredictable. And if America is in decline, war will be pointless. Other concerns are economic. If the war drags on, the damage to China and its exports will intensify, even as other countries suffer more.
Despite China’s tough analysis, it has a strategic blind spot. Chinese thinkers are too reluctant to consider a scenario in which America acts as a rogue power, destroying the world order it created. While China likes to complain about Western values, it has thrived under rules that America has worked hard to uphold.
An unstable planet would be uncomfortable for China. Global disorder would undermine its export-fueled growth, a concern for a party whose legitimacy rests on prosperity, iron-fisted order, and Chinese exceptionalism.
This scenario could accompany America’s decline. But it need not. In the face of technological and political change, America has repeatedly demonstrated a remarkable capacity to reinvent itself. By contrast, China is cautious, aging, and bound by party ideology. Until now, whenever America fails to provide global security, it has been reluctant to intervene.
China is placing great weight on the assumption that America will fail to thrive amid the anarchy it creates. There is a future in which America embraces rebellion and China withdraws into itself. That future could be America’s.