The sharp increase in energy prices has contributed decisively to the high level of inflation in Romania, adding at least 2-3 percentage points, and the future evolution will depend largely on the dynamics of the gas market, argues economic consultant Adrian Negrescu.

“Unfortunately, we are European champions in price increases, mainly due to the uncontrolled increase in energy prices last year. The 60% increase in energy prices added at least 2-3 percentage points to the inflation level. Thus, instead of having an inflation of 5-6% in 2025, at the end of the year we reached 10%. The good news is that, from the second half of this year, the base effect will be felt in the sense that we will no longer have, in the calculation of inflation, the effect of the increase in energy prices. It will no longer exist, from a statistical point of view, but that does not mean that things will look much better. The big question mark is related to what will happen in the gas market. We can already see that, in the contracts that are to be liberalized from April 1, there are prices between 0.32 and 0.41 lei per kWh compared to 0.31, which is the capped price at the moment, and if it comes to that people to pay 0.42 lei per kWh, this means, unfortunately, a price increase of up to 30% for gas. This will significantly influence inflation, in the sense that we will witness a new flare-up of inflation, with two percentage points more than it should be in the middle of the year”, stated Adrian Negrescu, according to Agerpres.

In his opinion, if the Government manages to temper the ‘speculative momentum of players in the gas market’, inflation should drop to 4-5% from September this year, as a result of the base effect, and this should create the premises for the national bank to reduce the monetary policy interest rate from 6.5% to 5%. Otherwise, the reduction in the key interest rate could signal the cheaper loans in the second half of the year. The current costs are impossible to cover for most customers, claims Negrescu.

At the same time, he estimates that inflation will reach 4-4.5% in October-November.

“I expect inflation to be 5-6% starting in August, with October-November to drop to 4-4.5%, this in the best-case scenario in which all the economic measures taken by the Government will translate positively into the dynamics of the economy. The good news is that these price increases are like an elastic band, if you pull it too hard, it breaks. If you increase the price of products too much, you are left with unsold goods. This is visible at the moment. Look at the inflation results for December. In the midst of the speculative season, as a rule, prices increase the most in December due to the high interest of Romanians in purchases. Many of the price increases were not like in previous years, they were more moderate, and this denotes the fact that a maximum level of bearability has been reached in terms of price increases, and companies have understood that by increasing the price of goods, you are doing nothing but leaving them unsold and approaching bankruptcy if “You are betting on price increases,” the economic consultant added.

The annual inflation rate fell to 9.69% in December, from 9.76% in November, as services rose by 11%, non-food goods by 10.48%, and food goods by 7.75%, according to data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upwards, to 9.6%, from 8.8% previously, the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 and anticipates that it will reach 3.7% at the end of 2026, compared to 3% in the previous forecast, according to data presented in November by the Governor of the BNR, Mugur Isărescu.