Acasă » Analyses » Complete image of the impact of rising energy prices (a partnerg-i analysis)

Complete image of the impact of rising energy prices (a partnerg-i analysis)

6 October 2021
Analyses
energynomics

The increase in electricity and natural gas costs will have a double impact on companies’ budgets: directly by increasing spending on the two commodities and indirectly, in various forms, writes Theodor Livinschi, from partnerg-i (in RO). We will focus, as an example – although hard to be assessed, there will be a boomerang effect of partial support from the state budget of the energy costs for households – only to the one determined by the ascending evolution of the prices they will pay for products (raw materials, equipment, etc.) and services.

Regardless of the energy intensity of companies, so the proportion of direct impact, the increase in costs (direct or indirect) with energy, from next year or even now, will be an important and difficult to manage blow. Depending on the flexibility and agility of each company, in terms of transferring these additional costs into its selling prices, we will see a slower or faster growth of the overall indirect impact.

On the other hand, companies’ efforts to integrate the evolution of energy costs, determined by the increase in the wholesale level of electricity and natural gas quotations, are hampered by the very high volatility and low liquidity that currently characterize the wholesale markets.

If the impact of the wholesale quotation level is obvious, leading in particular to increased costs, volatility and liquidity lead, inter alia, to a reduction in the validity of offers (up to the order of hours) and a reduction in the number of bidding suppliers (up to the number of steps of a podium). In conclusion, and not just for the reasons listed above, consumers need to adapt to the new conditions of selection and contracting processes and be prepared for additional unforeseen situations that they may generate. Here are the three aspects that make it more difficult to identify the most suitable contracting solutions for energy consumers.

Wholesale prices

In addition to the increased costs, the risk of non-support of commercial proposals submitted by bidding suppliers must also be considered and managed.

Volatility

In addition to determining the reduction in the validity of offers, volatility may lead, once again, to the risk of unsupported commercial proposals submitted, but also to the inclusion of additional and hedging risk premiums by bidding suppliers in the proposed costs.

Liquidity

This element not only entails the restriction of the number of bidding suppliers but may determine, in addition to reducing the validity of offers, the risk of unsupported commercial proposals and the inclusion of additional and cover risk premiums, including the impossibility of setting a guaranteed and invariable convenience price.

More details and explanatory graphics HERE!

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