The national energy system has been operating without nuclear production since August 13. Unit 1 of the Cernavoda NPP was shut down in a controlled manner at the end of July, and Unit 2 on August 13, due to the unprecedented drop in the Danube level, amid severe hydrological drought. It is the first situation in recent history in which both reactors are shut down simultaneously for this reason. The Ministry of Energy announced on September 2 that restarting is not possible earlier than September 10, specifying that the date represents a moment of reassessment, not a restart deadline.
The market effect is already measurable. The average price on the Day-Ahead Market in August was 793 lei/MWh, about 26% above the July level and about twice as high as in August 2025, when the average was 396 lei/MWh. In the evening hours, the system operated on imports. The government summoned over 80 large industrial consumers and requested them to voluntarily reduce consumption.
CITR, the largest restructuring and insolvency company in Romania, believes that the effect on companies is not evenly distributed in the chain and does not occur simultaneously.
The first link: energy suppliers and traders
On August 10, Nuclearelectrica informed the market that it had received from the Constanța Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Navigation and Agriculture a series of force majeure opinions, applicable to electricity supply contracts, effective as of July 27, 2026. The company stated that it can no longer fully execute, from its own production, the contractual obligations assumed towards its partners.
The opinion does not cancel the contracts by itself. It is a declaratory act that, depending on the clauses of each contract, can exempt the producer from penalties for undelivered energy. The practical consequence, as described in the market, is that the contractual partners must cover their needs from other sources, at the price of the day. The concrete interpretation of the effects is established contract by contract, together with the legal advisors of the parties.
The order of magnitude of the gap is visible from public transactions. Bandwidth contracts concluded with Nuclearelectrica in January 2026, with delivery throughout the year, had prices in the range of 550-560 lei/MWh. In the same period in which these deliveries were affected, hourly prices in the spot market rose, in the evening, to 1,400 lei/MWh.
“A supplier who contracted energy at a fixed price and must replace it from the market at the price of the day bears the difference immediately, in cash. His obligation to deliver to the final customer remains. That is why here the pressure appears first, that of liquidity”, says Florin Constantin, CITR Partner.
The mechanism has a precedent in the Romanian market. In the price crisis of 2021-2022, according to ANRE, over 20 supply licenses were withdrawn, and approximately 100,000 customers of some gas and electricity suppliers were taken over by other suppliers or as a supplier of last resort.
Second link: energy-intensive industrial consumers
Metallurgy, chemistry, cement, glass, paper, metal processing. The exposure is direct and generally known to management. These companies have negotiating power and public visibility. INS data show energy production prices 23.3% higher in June 2026 compared to June 2025.
Third link: suppliers and their subcontractors
Medium-sized companies, with fixed-price contracts concluded with large customers and without adjustment mechanisms. They absorb the cost increase without being able to transfer it downstream, and the effect appears in the financial statements with a delay. Supply contracts signed in the fall of 2025 are renewed during this period, and market estimates indicate prices 15-20% higher upon renewal.
“For industrial companies, the effect appears with a lag. The cost increases now, the price adjustment to the customer comes in the next contractual cycle, and the interval is financed from working capital”, adds Florin Constantin.
Why the current scenario is not the most difficult
The average of 793 lei/MWh was recorded in the month with the best photovoltaic contribution of the year. Solar production kept prices in the daytime interval at a low level, while in the evening hours the system was already operating on imports. In winter, the consumption peak moves to the interval in which photovoltaic production is zero, and consumption is structurally higher.
The orders of magnitude are public. The National Energy Dispatcher forecasted for the previous cold season an instantaneous consumption peak between 9,100 and 9,500 MW, depending on the scenario, with the conclusion that this peak cannot be fully covered by domestic production in any of the cases. The actual peak reached on January 19, 2026 was 9,235 MW. Transelectrica’s adequacy study identifies December, January and February as the critical periods, at the morning and evening peaks, and indicates the winter of 2026-2027 as the first real test of the system. To these is added the hydro capacity, affected by the same drought that shut down the reactors.
The observation remains valid regardless of the timing of the restart of the reactors, as it is a statement about the structure of the system.
“The August figure was obtained under favorable conditions for the system. Therefore, it should not be used as a benchmark for the autumn-winter budget,” says Florin Constantin, CITR Partner.
A context that does not end in September
According to the statements of the Ministry of Energy, the refurbishment of Unit 1 begins in 2027, and the reactor will remain shut down for a period of over two years. Added to this calendar is the hydrological risk, which this summer simultaneously affected nuclear and hydro production.
“This is reason enough for the financial planning of exposed companies to start from the hypothesis of a high energy cost over a longer period,” says Florin Constantin.
“In the immediate horizon, up to a quarter, the priority is visibility over the treasury and clarity over the contractual exposure: how much of the cost is fixed, how much is exposed to the market, when the contracts expire and what margin of adjustment there is in the relationship with customers. In practice, many companies discover in this exercise that the real exposure differs from the assumed one,” say CITR officials.
The calendar matters, and the window for renegotiating supply contracts and discussing with financiers is open now, ahead of the winter contractual cycle.
A company that enters December with the supply contract renegotiated and without visibility over the treasury has fewer options than one that begins the discussion in September.
Over the three to twelve month horizon, the discussion moves to the financing structure and the commercial relationship. Companies that arrive at these conversations early have a broader set of options. The Romanian legal framework provides preventive restructuring tools, designed specifically to be used before insolvency occurs. Their applicability is assessed on a case-by-case basis.
Over the one to three year horizon, the question becomes one of business model: which energy supply contracts, what degree of self-production and what configuration of capacities remain viable in a cost regime different from that of recent years.
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