Diesel can no longer return to low price levels, and the 10 lei/liter threshold tends to become the new reference level, in the context of structural changes on the energy market, claims Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Smart Energy Association (AEI).

“There are moments in the economy when we are not witnessing a crisis, but a regime change. 2026 is one of those moments. And at its center lies an inconvenient truth, systematically ignored by markets, politicians and the public: there is no longer a credible scenario in which diesel returns to “cheap” levels. We are not talking about a temporary price peak, not about a deviation from normal. We are talking about the end of normal. The 10 lei/liter threshold is no longer an exception. It is the new basis”, explains Dumitru Chisăliță.

According to him, the perception that energy prices rise and fall cyclically, returning to average levels, no longer corresponds to the current reality.

“For years we have been taught that energy works cyclically: it rises, falls, returns to the average. It is perhaps the most dangerous assumption that still dominates economic thinking. Because this average no longer exists. Energy globalization – that invisible mechanism that brought cheap oil from the most efficient sources to the most efficient refineries – has been destroyed. Not completely, but enough to change the rules of the game. Flows are no longer economically optimized, but politically filtered. It no longer matters just how much oil costs, but where it comes from and how “safe” it is. And safety costs. A lot.”, added the specialist.

He argues that European states are increasingly prioritizing energy security over costs, which leads to higher prices.

“Energy autonomy is the new mandatory luxury. European states no longer buy energy as before. They no longer pursue the lowest price, but the lowest risk. This means more expensive contracts, longer routes, logistical redundancy and strategic stocks. In other words, we pay double to not depend on a single source. This change is not temporary. It is structural. And any new structure comes with a new level of cost. Higher,” noted the AEI president.

In his opinion, the conflict triggered by the war in Ukraine has definitively destroyed the illusion that energy is just a commodity. Thus, energy is now an instrument of geopolitical pressure.

“This means that its price no longer reflects only supply and demand, but also risk, tension, strategy. Volatility is no longer an exception, but a permanent component. And, more importantly, it means that Europe pays more than others,” Chisăliță also said.

On the other hand, he stressed that the public discussion is obsessively focused on the price of crude oil, but Europe’s real vulnerability is its refining capacity.

“Europe has closed refineries, reduced investments and become dependent on imports of finished products. This creates a paradoxical situation: even if crude oil stabilizes, diesel can remain expensive. Because you have nowhere to process it efficiently. It is one of the least discussed, but decisive structural changes,” the specialist said.

He also claims that taxes have increased significantly and have become the “invisible floor.”

“Even in an optimistic scenario, there is one element that does not disappear: taxation. Excise duties, taxes, surcharges, taxes on taxes, VAT and the expansion of carbon taxation mechanisms create a “hard floor” – a level below which the price cannot fall. Not because the market would not allow it, but because the state will not allow it. Thus, the decline in oil prices is fiscally amortized. And growth is amplified,” Chisăliță added.

He added that financial markets operate on expectations, and expectations are, chronically, almost always optimistic. “They assume that imbalances are corrected, that tensions are resolved, that things are “returning to normal.” But this normal has disappeared. The “mean reversion” model – the idea that prices return to the mean – is applied to a world that no longer exists. And this produces systematic errors of assessment,” he added.

At the same time, he stressed that politicians are divided between denial and postponement.

“Political factors in such periods are no longer lucid. On the contrary. The electoral cost of recognizing reality is too high. It is easier to temporarily cap, to subsidize punctually, to postpone difficult decisions. But these measures do not solve the problem. They mask it. The result is an economy that does not adapt, but reacts late, violently and inefficiently,” said the AEI president.

According to him, the real risk is the long duration of the conflict.

“The biggest miscalculation is about time. There is a tacit assumption that major conflicts cannot last very long. History contradicts this idea. Such conflicts last for months, sometimes years, and leave behind fragmented economic worlds. If the current tensions persist, the consequence is not just volatility. It is a permanent realignment of economic flows. Europe is left with more expensive energy. Asia benefits from cheaper resources. Competitiveness is redistributed. And this difference is not easily corrected,” he added.

In his opinion, even in favorable scenarios, such as a quick peace or a decrease in demand, energy will not return to cheap levels, as the problem is structural.

“Cheap diesel is no longer a possible outcome of the market. It is the product of a world that has disappeared. What we are experiencing now is not an anomaly, but the new equilibrium: more expensive, more unstable, more political. The real problem is not the price level. The problem is that we refuse to accept that this level will be permanent. That the threshold of 9 lei/l is not a temporary maximum, but the new psychological minimum. This collective denial – of the markets, of politicians and of society – delays adaptation and amplifies shocks. And with each future crisis, the cost of this delay will become more visible. And more difficult to bear”, stated Dumitru Chisăliță.