For the second time in six months, Romanians have been called to the polls to decide the next president; and for the second time in this interval, the results show a clear decline in support for the ruling coalition. The second-round showdown will pit two deeply divergent options against each other: George Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), a promoter of isolationist euroscepticism, and Nicușor Dan, the mayor of the capital, an exponent of European and transatlantic values.
With 40.96% of the votes (around 3.96 million), George Simion has taken up most of the themes previously promoted by candidate Călin Georgescu and is the favourite for the second round, scheduled for 18 May. Independent Nicușor Dan obtained 20.99% (1.97 million votes), benefiting from the support of some extra-parliamentary parties as well as late and unconvincing support from USR.
Two societal projects
Both candidates have taken a firm stance against the political establishment represented by PSD and PNL, denouncing clientelism and systemic corruption. Although different in style and vision, they both propose a reformulation of the relationship between the state and citizens.
George Simion, with a populist and often contradictory discourse, a modest education and strained relations with the authorities of the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, claims links with conservative leaders such as Giorgia Meloni (Italy) and Donald Trump (USA). His anti-EU messages place him in an ideological zone close to authoritarian leaders such as Viktor Orbán (Hungary), Robert Fico (Slovakia), and sympathisers of the Putin regime.
In contrast, Nicușor Dan proposes a clear and balanced vision, anchored in the values of the rule of law, market economy and meritocracy. With a solid education and a consistently pro-European attitude, he advocates the rebuilding of political parties through a generational change to restore public trust: professionalism instead of clientelism, respect instead of defiance, strong institutions instead of those captured by private interests.
Last warning to the ruling coalition
The double electoral defeat of the PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition expresses an acute crisis of legitimacy at the top of these parties. While the PNL tried, at least in part, to rejuvenate its leadership by putting in place a team around Ilie Bolojan, the PSD chose to ignore the voters’ signal by keeping Marcel Ciolacu at the head of both the party and the government.
The recent vote amounts to a severe political sanction and will force the ruling parties to rethink their strategies. It remains to be seen whether the failure of joint candidate Crin Antonescu will cause a split in the PSD, including at the parliamentary level. At the same time, the question is whether the current coalition will resist internal and external pressures.
Looking ahead to the decisive round on 18 May, an important role could be played by the positioning of Victor Ponta, former PSD leader, who obtained 1.23 million votes with a speech compatible with that of George Simion. At the same time, USR’s ability to find itself again and to clearly assume its pro-European line and its support for Nicușor Dan will be crucial, after the confusion of the first round, when the party withdrew its support for its own candidate, Elena Lasconi, who nevertheless obtained over 200,000 votes.
