ANRE has announced that the estimated average impact of green certificates in the final electricity consumer’s bill will remain, for 2027, at 14.5 euro/MWh. Expressed per unit of consumption shown on the bill, this level is equivalent to approximately 0.0145 euro/kWh, or around 7.25 bani/kWh excluding VAT at an indicative exchange rate of 5 lei/euro, and almost 8.8 bani/kWh including 21% VAT. The authority submitted the estimate to the Ministry of Energy on 30 June 2026; the estimated average impact is to be approved by Government Decision within 60 days of ANRE’s notification.

Green certificates do not represent the price of active electricity, but the cost of a support scheme through which Romania supported electricity generation from renewable sources. Suppliers and certain categories of producers are required to purchase green certificates, with the cost being passed through to the final bill.

A strict application of the algorithm set out in ANRE Order no. 117/2021 would have resulted, for 2027, in an estimated average impact of 13.03 euro/MWh. ANRE is proposing, however, to maintain the level at 14.5 euro/MWh, in order to support the uptake of a larger number of certificates from the market and gradually reduce the accumulated surplus. According to the authority, all green certificates must be taken up by the end of the support scheme, while delaying this absorption could concentrate the pressure in the final years of the scheme.

For 2027, ANRE estimates 35.65 million green certificates available for trading, of which 18.97 million are carried over from 2026 and 16.68 million are to be issued for trading in 2027. The estimated number of certificates to be taken up from the market is 18.13 million, against estimated final electricity consumption subject to the green certificate obligation of 42.08 million MWh. The surplus remains high: 17.53 million certificates, equivalent to 97% of the estimated number of certificates to be taken up from the market.

In simple terms, the impact on a household with consumption of 100 kWh per month is approximately 1.45 euro/month, before VAT. At an indicative exchange rate of 5 lei/euro, this means around 7.25 lei/month excluding VAT and roughly 8.8 lei/month including 21% VAT.

For residential consumers, the amount is not dominant in the monthly bill, but it shows why the final bill cannot be explained solely through the price of active electricity. Electricity consumed, network tariffs, system services, cogeneration, excise duty, green certificates and other regulated components add up to a final price that can be difficult to follow without a transparent bill.

The market impact is broader than the amount shown on the bill. The green certificate scheme was one of the main mechanisms through which Romania supported investment in renewables, and it is now entering a phase of readjustment. An Energynomics analysis showed that at least 119 MW reached the expiry of green certificate support in 2025, with more than 500 MW to follow in 2026; the peak of exits is expected in 2027-2028, when around 70% of the MW losing support by 2031 are concentrated in those two years.

This transition changes the commercial logic of mature renewable assets. The disappearance of green certificate revenues does not mean that plants will stop operating, but it shifts the pressure towards contracting, profile optimisation, trading, aggregation, technical availability and price risk management. PPAs, hedging, imbalance management and, where economically viable, repowering become key tools for projects exiting the support scheme.

For commercial and industrial companies, the 14.5 euro/MWh figure matters more through volume. At monthly consumption levels of hundreds or thousands of MWh, the green certificate component becomes relevant for budgeting, contracts with pass-through elements and comparisons between supply offers. At the same time, the gradual exit of large parks from the support scheme may change the way these capacities behave in the market, including in bilateral contracting and exposure to volatility.

For suppliers, maintaining the level provides a benchmark for 2027 offers and contracts. Clear communication of this component becomes important in a market where customers want to understand the difference between the price of electricity and the final bill, while mature producers gradually move from a support regime to full commercial discipline.