The offers published on the ANRE website for April 1, 2026 — between 0.32 and 0.41 lei/kWh with VAT included — are not just a set of new prices, but a signal that the supply market no longer values energy according to the cost of goods, but according to the size of the risk, commercial prudence and — for some players — an obvious return to high margins, notes the Smart Energy Association (AEI).
Natural gas costs, taking into account the price traded on the Romanian Commodity Exchange for the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2026, are 0.31 lei/kWh, natural gas costs taking into account the price traded on the European Gas Exchange TTF for the year 2026 are 0.29 lei/kWh, the price invoiced in December 2025 was 0.29 lei/kWh. Reason why “an offer of 0.32 lei/kWh means a 3% increase compared to the capped price. It is an almost neutral movement: perhaps a higher administrative cost, a portfolio adjustment, a normal update. In contrast, the upper end of the range, 0.41 lei/kWh, means +32% compared to the capped price — and here we are not talking about adjustments, but about a brutal repositioning”, claims Dumitru Chisăliță, president of AEI.
The natural question is: why, in a market where the product is the same, does the difference end up being almost a third? The answer lies not in natural gas itself, but in the way suppliers calculate survival and profitability after several years in which the “normal” of the market has been replaced by exceptions: volatility, interventions, caps, non-payment of subsidies, pressure on cash flow and a lesson learned the hard way — that a low price today can mean massive losses tomorrow, argues AEI.
In this context, we observe that commercial margins are widening. If we currently see margins of the order of 4%, for 2026 offers appear that suggest the equivalent of margins that rise to approx. 22%. Of course, part of this “margin” is, in reality, a risk envelope: costs of imbalance, losses, financing, non-collection, uncertainties. But one part becomes clear, some suppliers are no longer running after volume, but after clean and predictable profit.
And when the final price increases, the fiscal effect inevitably appears. VAT does not “change” as a percentage, but as an amount on the invoice it increases directly proportional to the base. Therefore, an increase in the final price by 32% also leads to an increase of approximately 32% in the amounts paid as VAT. For the consumer, this means a simple thing, not only does he pay more to the supplier, but he also pays more to the state. The bill becomes heavier in both directions.
In parallel, the gas market for 2026 offers another relevant indication. The data shows a price of 0.16 lei/kWh on BRM, compared to 0.127 lei/kWh on TTF. A difference of about 26%, which suggests that Romania continues to internalize a price premium compared to the European hub: either for reasons of liquidity, market structure, internal constraints, or perceived costs and risk, or greed. Gas is not just a separate commodity; in Europe, it remains one of the main benchmarks for the marginal price of electricity. In other words, this spread can be seen in the chain, even if it does not fully explain the large increases in retail electricity.
What is important to understand is that these offers for 2026 do not necessarily show an explosion in the real cost of gas, but rather a paradigm shift, suppliers value the future as a period in which “cheap” means “dangerous”. And the consumer is in the middle of a market where the price does not only reflect the kilowatt-hour, but also the fear of instability, the desire for profit and commercial freedom.
In the end, the range of 0.32–0.41 lei/kWh is not just a difference of 9 bani. It is a difference in economic model. Some suppliers want a quota, others want a margin and selection. For consumers, this means that, in 2026, the most important thing will not be gas — but the lack of attention to the offer.
