Zoltán Nagy-Bege
Director of Energy Markets, Ciga Energy Advisory
In recent years, the meaning of a “mature” renewable project has undergone a significant paradigm shift. While maturity was previously associated primarily with a high probability of construction and commissioning – reflected in obtaining the Grid Connection Permit (ATR), signing the grid connection agreement, or receiving the Establishment Authorization from ANRE – recent developments in the project pipeline indicate that these administrative milestones are no longer sufficient to characterize the real viability of a generation asset.
Permits no longer equal maturity
By the end of 2025, in Romania, the cumulative capacity of energy projects (across all technologies) holding a valid ATR exceeded 78 GW, of which approximately 46 GW had signed grid connection agreements, over 25 GW had obtained construction permits, and around 7.4 GW had received establishment authorizations. Despite this formal progress, it is unlikely that a significant proportion of these projects will reach commissioning within the next decade.
Considering the realistic integration capacity of the national (and regional) power system(s) – estimated at approximately 10-15 GW of new generation capacity by 2035 – it becomes evident that some projects, even those in advanced stages of permitting, may never be implemented. In certain cases, even projects holding an establishment authorization cannot be regarded as mature from an investment standpoint in the absence of committed financing, as demonstrated by the recent suspension of authorizations by ANRE due to the failure to provide timely proof of financing.
Nevertheless, the pace of newly installed capacity – particularly in photovoltaics – is already sufficient to produce measurable effects on the functioning of electricity markets.
One such signal is the growing intraday price cannibalization during midday hours, especially on high-irradiation days, when the price differential between the 11:00-16:00 interval and the daily average (baseload) tends to widen. In this context, traditional price capture risk is evolving into shape risk, where the commercial value of the generated energy increasingly depends on the timing of delivery.
At the same time, imbalance-related costs are becoming a structural component of commercial performance, particularly for standalone projects. Production volatility during transition months (spring and autumn), as well as BRP penalties incurred on days characterized by rapid production ramping (e.g. under variable cloud cover), can already lead to differences of tens of RON/MWh between optimized portfolios and assets lacking flexibility mechanisms.
In this new market environment, the maturity of a photovoltaic project is no longer defined solely by its permitting stage, but by its operational integration capability: forecasting performance, aggregated participation within efficient BRPs, access to storage – whether co-located or contractual – and the ability to respond to intraday and balancing market signals are becoming key determinants of the commercial bankability of renewable assets.
Market reality is already forcing operational maturity
Against the backdrop of rapidly increasing installed capacity and the growing cannibalization effects during solar generation hours, the pure merchant model is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain from an investment standpoint in the absence of a clear multi-market monetization strategy. Full exposure to Day-Ahead market volatility is no longer compatible with lenders’ bankability requirements, particularly in the case of photovoltaic assets, where the production profile risk has a direct impact on captured prices.
In this context, traditional fixed-price PPAs are gradually being replaced by more flexible contractual arrangements better suited to the specific characteristics of photovoltaic generation. Lenders have developed a better understanding of the risks associated with market volatility and the production profile of these assets and are no longer satisfied with simple contractual structures, increasingly requiring monetization mechanisms that more accurately reflect how energy is generated and valued in the market. In parallel, hedging strategies are moving beyond purely volumetric approaches, integrating instruments that address production shape risk, as well as cross-market optimization between the Day-Ahead, Intraday and balancing markets. This allows for a more efficient monetization of operational flexibility and reduces exposure to imbalance-related penalties.
From an asset structuring perspective, projects that are increasingly perceived as bankable are those capable of integrating or accessing additional flexibility – either through co-located storage, integration into a supply portfolio, or hybrid structures combining photovoltaic generation with complementary technologies (such as wind or hydro, including on a virtual basis).
In this new framework, bankability no longer derives exclusively from CAPEX efficiency, but from the project’s ability to transform the inherent intermittency of renewable generation into a tradable product adapted to the increasingly dynamic requirements of electricity markets.
Where the commercial opportunities are shifting towards
As the volume of installed photovoltaic capacity continues to grow, the role of the Day-Ahead market is gradually being redefined: it is becoming primarily a clearing mechanism for energy, rather than a primary revenue driver for producers. Under these conditions, commercial opportunities are progressively shifting towards the Intraday market and, increasingly, towards balancing markets.
Operational flexibility is thus acquiring direct economic value. Participation through aggregators, the use of energy storage systems, or access to demand response mechanisms are becoming essential tools for revenue optimization and for reducing exposure to imbalances. At the same time, commercial operating models are evolving through the integration of advanced forecasting and optimization tools based on artificial intelligence, enabling the dynamic adjustment of bidding strategies in response to spot and balancing market signals.
Furthermore, the geographical concentration of photovoltaic projects in certain areas of the grid may generate additional risks associated with regional congestion. In such situations, economic curtailment may occur, with a direct impact on the commercial performance of projects.
As PV penetrations rise, the core question is no longer “Can the project connect?” but “Can the project perform commercially in a volatility-and-imbalance regime?” In practice, this means that operational maturity – forecasting, BRP quality, intraday agility, and access to flexibility – has become the real maturity test. The projects that will be financed and scaled are those that can participate intelligently across spot and balancing markets, turning variability from a cost into an optimizable source of value.