The rising oil prices, amid the conflict in the Middle East, risk deviating inflation from the baseline scenario for the end of the year and affecting the estimated economic growth of approximately 1%, Iulian Lolea, chief economist of the Concordia Employers’ Confederation, said on Tuesday at a specialized conference.
Asked how the economy could evolve in a scenario of a rapid end to the conflict, the economist indicated that the effects would be limited, but not non-existent.
“In the short term, we have seen the increase in oil prices on the international market, before the impact is reflected in fuel prices at the local level. A relatively short period will pass, generally a few days or weeks, given the renewal of stocks, so the impact should be limited on both inflation and economic growth. With the end of the conflict, we expect international market prices to normalize. However, this normalization does not mean a return to the levels at the beginning of the year, of approximately 70 dollars per barrel. After the quotations exceeded 80-82 dollars, it is possible to stabilize in the 75-76 dollar area, as a risk premium will persist for a period of time. In this scenario, the price of gasoline could reach 1.3-1.4 lei more than previous levels, if the situation de-escalates quickly,” explained Iulian Lolea, quoted by Agerpres.
Under these conditions, the impact will also be seen at the pump. “There will be an increase even if the conflict ends quickly. The risk premium in the price of a barrel will continue to manifest itself for at least a few months and this could be reflected in an increase of 5-7%, depending on the conditions under which the conflict ends,” he stressed.
According to him, in the scenario of prolonging the conflict, the effects could be more extensive.
“With an average increase of $ 10 in the price of a barrel in the medium term, the impact on fuel prices could translate into an increase of up to 0.7-1 leu per liter, and on inflation through an increase of 0.4-0.5 percentage points,” the representative of the Concordia Employers’ Confederation specified.
Fuel has a significant share in the consumer basket, 7-8%, higher than gas, and generates a strong transmission effect in the economy, he showed.
“There is a first-round effect, through the direct increase in fuel prices, and a second-round effect, through the transmission of costs in transportation and, subsequently, in the prices of other goods and services. Romania is particularly sensitive to this mechanism, and the pressures could endanger the NBR’s end-of-year target, close to 4%. An impact of approximately 0.5 percentage points, combined with other risk factors, such as the evolution of gas prices or the elimination of the trade mark-up on basic products, could lead inflation to 5% at the end of the year,” the economist added.
Regarding the evolution of the economy, the first quarter of 2026 seems to have started weakly, Iulian Lolea specified.
“Economic growth could accelerate slightly in the second half of the year, if the situation remains relatively stable. However, additional pressure on prices generated by the conflict in Iran could again reduce purchasing power, amplify anxiety and decrease consumer confidence, with a direct effect on consumption and, implicitly, on the potential for economic growth. Estimates indicated an increase of approximately 1% towards the end of the year, but if the situation does not normalize quickly, economic progress could be significantly lower,” the Concordia representative noted.
For the euro zone, for example, the European Central Bank had calculated that a 10% increase in oil prices would result in a decrease in economic growth of 0.5 percentage points. Therefore, in Romania we cannot be far from this level either, considering that we are correlated with the euro zone and that we are so sensitive to the increase in fuel prices, the economist added.
On the other hand, sentiment indicators regarding population consumption and business confidence are at their lowest since the financial crisis, Iulian Lolea stressed.
“This situation comes to add fuel to the fire. This makes us even more vulnerable and will be reflected in consumption, especially since Romanians are very sensitive when they see the price increase at the pump. It is one of the goods to which they are very sensitive because they remember the price, compared to the last time they filled up, and the negative perception is likely to increase,” he added.
According to him, among the most affected sectors are transport, the second contributor to Romania’s net exports of services, the impact of which will subsequently be reflected in the prices of other products.
“Also, the fertilizer industry and the chemical sector, large consumers of natural gas, are additionally exposed, and the industry as a whole remains vulnerable after three difficult years,” the economist said.
At the same time, he stressed that there is already a trend of optimizing expenses for companies, amid the pressures accumulated in recent years, namely the increase in energy costs, the increase in the minimum wage and the rise in the price of other inputs.
“The conflict in the Middle East adds additional pressures, and companies will have to further streamline their costs, especially those related to wages, energy and rents, in order to maintain their competitiveness,” the representative of the Concordia Employers’ Confederation noted.