Rising prices for electricity, oil, and natural gas continue to exert pressure on inflation, while uncertainties regarding the operation of the Cernavodă nuclear power plant and the war in Iran have the potential to trigger new price shocks, Adrian Codirlașu, President of CFA Society Romania, stated on Tuesday, according to Agerpres.
“The Central Bank announced this, and it was to be expected. Why? Because we face a specific situation regarding energy—namely, the local electricity crisis involving the Cernavodă plant, which is currently not operating, forcing us to import energy at higher prices; that is one factor. The second is the war in Iran, which has driven up global prices for both oil and natural gas. All three energy components are seeing higher prices, and it is natural for this to pass through to the prices of all other goods and services,” Adrian Codirlașu explained.
However, analysts say that the National Bank of Romania (NBR) could lower the key interest rate in the first half of 2027 as part of the fight against inflation. “Indeed, we are observing a resurgence of inflation. In my view, the main culprit is fuel. Fuel prices—which have seen significant fluctuations over the past two or three months—are beginning to be reflected in the prices of goods and services. On the other hand, I expect inflation to start falling again during the final quarter of the year. This anticipated easing of inflation, driven by a slowdown in consumption and economic activity, could create room for the Central Bank to begin a cycle of cutting the key interest rate sometime early next year,” stated Alexandra Smedoiu, Vice President of CFA Romania, as cited by RRA.
“We are facing high uncertainty. We do not know what will happen with the Danube’s water flow—and thus when the Cernavodă power plant will resume operations—while the war in Iran continues and oil prices remain high, with Brent crude (the benchmark for Europe) trading above $100 per barrel again, and natural gas prices in Europe also remaining elevated. Countries have already drawn down their reserves of diesel, oil, and natural gas, and these need to be replenished. So, the energy situation is not exactly rosy. Shocks could occur. Unpleasant surprises may still arise; it is extremely difficult to predict when the war in Iran will end,” added Codirlașu.
