Escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices to high levels and increased uncertainty in financial markets, according to an analysis by a trading and investment platform.

According to eToro, investors are watching the financial results of large companies to assess the impact on profits and the global economy.

“The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and, in particular, the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforces the role of energy as the main macroeconomic determinant for the markets. While traders rush to secure physical supplies of oil for refineries, pushing prices to new highs, investors are eagerly waiting to see the impact of the whole situation on corporate profits. This week, as major American corporations begin to publish their financial reports for the first quarter of this year, we will have a picture of how the shock in the oil market has affected both companies and consumers,” said analyst Bogdan Maioreanu, quoted by Agerpres.

The volatile situation in the conflict with Iran and the US promise to block the Strait of Hormuz pushed the price of physical crude oil to a record high of almost $150 a barrel on Monday for oil loaded on ships for immediate delivery to Europe, while that destined for Africa also reached new highs, according to LSEG data and traders cited by Reuters.

The last oil tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of war with Iran are scheduled to reach refineries by April 20, a crucial moment that analysts warn could trigger physical shortages in Europe and the US within weeks, the Financial Times reported on Monday, cited in the eToro analysis.

“Physical oil prices are rising sharply due to actual supply shortages, not future expectations. Brent crude futures for June delivery remain well below physical cargo prices at around $95 a barrel, after reaching $100 a barrel earlier in the week. This divergence highlights the urgency of demand outstripping available supply,” the document said.

Meanwhile, financial markets are currently focused on oil prices and their implications for the global economy.

“The price of a barrel of Brent has fallen from a high of $115 in late March, but over the entire first quarter of 2026, it has increased by up to 56%. This is the context in which large American companies begin their first-quarter financial reporting season. Traditionally, it starts with the largest American banks, and investors react negatively to any results that are not exceptional,” the author of the analysis states.

In a sense, the financial reporting season is becoming an early warning system for central banks, the document states.

“As company management presents its forecasts, investors will be able to get a picture of the future as corporations see it. The key issue will be whether their managers view the effects of the current conflict as temporary or as a lasting element of the economic environment. This is precisely what makes this reporting season so important for investors,” the statement added.

In the current economic climate, publishing a “good” earnings report could be poorly received by investors. Each sector could be judged by the market a little differently.

In the case of banks, the focus will be on lending, provisions and margins. In the case of technology companies, the key areas will be AI revenues, costs and profitability. In industry, logistics and retail, the market will mainly look at energy, transport and demand.

“Everyone will also be keeping an eye on oil prices as they continue to largely shape the market environment. While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, high oil prices bring inflation back to the forefront. This is something that both consumers and companies are worried about. However, so far, the S&P 500 has recovered all of its losses since the start of the conflict with Iran. “Ultimately, the story remains the same, which is a resilient consumer who is doing well despite higher gas prices,” JP Morgan said on its earnings call yesterday. And that pretty much sums up what is happening in the markets right now, although the story could change if the oil crisis becomes a long-term issue,” the report also says.