The decrease of 2.26 percentage points in a single month is not the result of an improvement in the internal inflationary mechanism, but of the energy shock from July 2025 being removed from the calculation basis, claims the president of the Romanian Association of Financial and Banking Analysts (AAFBR), Flavius ​​Valentin Jakubowicz.

“The decrease of 2.26 percentage points in a single month is not the result of an improvement in the internal inflationary mechanism, but of the energy shock of July 2025 being removed from the calculation basis. The difference is most clearly seen in the components: non-food goods fell from 12.3% to 7.9%, that is, exactly where electricity loses its statistical effect, while services, the component that reflects wage inertia and internal inflationary expectations, remained practically unchanged, around 13.7%,” Flavius ​​Valentin Jakubowicz told Agerpres.

He specified that the second element worth remembering is the monthly dynamics: prices increased by 0.58% in July alone, which, annualized, means a pace close to 7%, in a month in which the seasonality of vegetables and fruits should have worked in the opposite direction.

“In other words, the current price pressure remains substantially above target, even if the annual indicator looks better. The downward trajectory will continue in August, when the effects of the increase in VAT and excise rates are also eliminated from the calculation base, and a rate around 6% at the end of the year remains plausible. But this is an arithmetic correction, not an achieved disinflation. We will see the real test in the adjusted CORE2 core inflation and in the monthly rates in the autumn, when the base effects are exhausted,” Flavius ​​Valentin Jakubowicz also said.