Based on INS data on the evolution of prices and quantities of diesel and gasoline, a significant change in the fuel market is observed in the period January-April 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, both from the perspective of price levels and consumption evolution, claims analyst Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Smart Energy Association (AEI).

Thus, in the period January-April 2025, average fuel prices were relatively stable. Gasoline varied between 7.28 and 7.39 lei/liter, with a maximum variation of only 0.11 lei/liter (1.5%), and diesel between 7.40 and 7.65 lei/liter, the maximum difference being 0.25 lei/liter (3.4%). This development indicates a market characterized by low fluctuations and relative cost stability.

In the first four months of 2026, the price level was considerably higher. Gasoline increased from 7.70 lei/liter in January to 9.18 lei/liter in March, after which it decreased to 8.79 lei/liter in April. Compared to April 2025, the price of gasoline was approximately 19.6% higher.

Diesel recorded an even sharper development, increasing from 7.88 lei/liter in January to a maximum of 9.98 lei/liter in March, followed by a decrease to 9.53 lei/liter in April. Compared to April 2025, the price of diesel was approximately 27.6% higher, indicating a much higher pressure on transportation and distribution costs.

Average fuel prices in Romania

Consumption evolution analysis

In 2025, consumption evolution was moderate. Gasoline consumption increased by 12% in both March and April, after a constant level in February, which reflects a seasonal increase specific to the beginning of the period of intense mobility.

In the case of diesel, consumption had a gradual evolution, with an increase of 2% in February, 9% in March and 3% in April, confirming the intensification of economic and transport activities with the approach of the agricultural and construction season.

In 2026, consumption evolution is more volatile. For gasoline, a decrease of 2% is observed in February, followed by a strong increase of 17% in March, and in April the growth rate slows down to only 1%. This evolution suggests that the sharp increase in prices has started to influence consumer behavior, limiting demand after the seasonal peak in March.

In the case of diesel, consumption remains constant in February, increases sharply in March (21%), then returns to a stationary level in April. Even though the price of diesel increased significantly, demand remained high in March, which confirms that this product is mainly used for economic activities where demand is less sensitive to price variations.

Evolution of fuel consumption compared to the previous month in Romania

Correlation of prices with consumption

The comparative analysis highlights that the price increases in 2026 did not lead to a proportional reduction in consumption. In March 2026, although gasoline was approximately 26% more expensive than in March 2025, consumption increased by 17%, and diesel, with a price higher by almost 31%, recorded a consumption increase of 21%.

This behavior indicates a low elasticity of demand for fuels in the short term. Both individual users and economic operators continued to consume similar or even higher quantities, despite the price increases, which reflects the essential nature of fuels for mobility and economic activity.

However, the slowdown in the rate of consumption growth in April 2026, especially in the case of gasoline (from 17% to just 1%), may represent the first signal that the high price level is starting to influence consumer behavior.

In conclusion, compared to 2025, the first four months of 2026 were characterized by a significant increase in fuel prices, more pronounced in the case of diesel; the maintenance of high demand in the early months of the year, especially in March, despite price increases; a reduced sensitivity of consumption to short-term price increases, which confirms the essential nature of fuels and the emergence of signals of moderation in consumption in April 2026, especially in the gasoline segment, which may indicate the beginning of consumer adaptation to the new price level.

Overall, the data show that, during the analyzed period, demand for fuels remained robust even in the face of price increases of 20–30%, but the pace of consumption growth is starting to decrease as the economic impact of these increases is transmitted to end users.

Autor: Bogdan Tudorache

Active in the economic and business press for the past 26 years, Bogdan graduated Law and then attended intensive courses in Economics and Business English. He went up to the position of editor-in-chief since 2006 and has provided management and editorial policy for numerous economic publications dedicated especially to the community of foreign investors in Romania. From 2003 to 2013 he was active mainly in the financial-banking sector. He started freelancing for Energynomics in 2013, notable for his advanced knowledge of markets, business communities and a mature editorial style, both in Romanian and English.