The price of gasoline and diesel could reach record levels in Romania and the rest of the European Union, and EU governments are preparing intervention mechanisms (reduction of excise duties, temporary caps) to protect purchasing power, according to the general director of the Energy Employers’ Federation, Daniel Apostol.
He signals that the fear of what could happen to the Strait of Hormuz is recalculating the price of energy and risk faster than the actual destruction on the ground.
“On March 9, 2026, the price of oil recorded a violent increase: “European” Brent crude oil reached the threshold of 120 USD/barrel, a doubling compared to the beginning of the year. Shipping companies are avoiding the area, and over 250 ships are reported waiting, entering or leaving the Gulf. The main cause: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the imminent risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz,” Apostol emphasized in an analysis, according to Agerpres.
He noted that, according to analysts, “market psychology” is currently the main governing factor, and, in the opinion of many of them, there are two possible divergent scenarios.
“The first scenario is the one with high geopolitical risk, which means the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the expansion of the conflict in Iran and physical disruptions of supplies. This scenario envisages an even greater jump in the price of crude oil, somewhere above $150 per barrel, fueled precisely by the geopolitical “risk premium”. The second scenario refers to the accumulation of a global supply surplus (USA, Brazil, Guyana), the slowdown in demand in China, the resumption of OPEC+ production and a return and reset of the oil price to the level of 60-70 dollars per barrel as an average for the entire year 2026, betting on the fact that global production will exceed demand”, explained the economic analyst.
Thus, Apostol pointed out, the impact on the global economy is an “asymmetric shock”, hitting net energy importing countries harder.
“The increase in transportation and industrial production costs will keep inflation at high levels, forcing central banks (especially the FED) to postpone cutting interest rates. And a prolonged maintenance of oil above $100/barrel may reduce global GDP by 0.5% – 1% in 2026. In Romania and the rest of the EU, there is a risk that gasoline and diesel will reach record levels, and EU governments are preparing intervention mechanisms (reduction of excise duties, temporary caps) to protect purchasing power. However, energy-intensive sectors (chemistry, transportation, steel) will face additional losses in competitiveness compared to regions with cheaper energy (such as the USA),” the FPE official said.
In Daniel Apostol’s opinion, the conflict in Iran has transformed from a regional security crisis into a systemic “global macroeconomic risk”, and the world risks facing a scenario of war of attrition and economic chaos.
“The resulting economic shock targets the rest of the world, through the strategic commercial relevance of the Strait of Hormuz, this “jugular artery” of the world’s oil and natural gas trade. Here lies the real global danger. Through this narrow corridor passes 20% of the world’s oil and a substantial part of the liquefied natural gas (LNG). A partial or total closure of the strait would cause an unprecedented price storm,” the economic analyst warned.
He also stressed that the shock is already devastating for the stock markets and economies of North Asia dependent on imports, in the context in which about 84% of the oil and 83% of the LNG that passes through Hormuz go to Asian markets (China, India, Japan).
“This makes Asia the “first direct victim” of the economic impact. Qatar’s LNG exports are entirely dependent on the strait. The impact is propagating through supply chains. Even without a formal blockade, major oil tanker owners have already suspended transit. Insurance premiums have skyrocketed, which analysts say will lead to higher container costs and global inflation before the physical shortage is felt. The astronomical increase in war insurance premiums and the decision of major shipping companies to suspend transit are forcing ships to bypass Africa. This change adds 10-14 days to trade routes, paralyzing “just-in-time” logistics and generating cost inflation that will hit the final consumer,” said Daniel Apostol.
He added that the European Union, energy vulnerable and dependent on maritime trade, risks facing a “stagflation” scenario – high inflation caused by the energy shock and economic stagnation caused by logistical bottlenecks.
“While the European Central Bank (ECB) was struggling to bring inflation under control, this new conflict resets the rules of the game. Gas prices on the TTF exchange are volatile, and European governments will be forced to reintroduce costly subsidies to protect the population and industry. For Eastern European countries, including Romania, the risks are amplified. Our economies are more sensitive to energy prices and supply chains. We are in a phase of maximum geopolitical uncertainty. If the conflict is resolved in a few weeks, the impact can be absorbed by strategic reserves and a painful price adjustment. But if it turns into a longer-term war of attrition, the existing economic structure could collapse, leaving behind a fragmented, poorer, deeply unstable world, but also forced to fundamentally reshape the way it produces, consumes and trades. For now, the global economy is being held in straits even “by the Strait of Hormuz,” Daniel Apostol pointed out.