The heat wave increases the energy bill and also shows us how vulnerable the National Energy System (SEN) has become, claims, in an analysis, the president of the Smart Energy Association (AEI), Dumitru Chisăliță.

“Every time the temperature rises, consumption increases, air conditioners run at full capacity, and electricity prices explode. It is a convenient but incomplete explanation. The heat wave is not the cause of the problem, but only the test that shows how vulnerable the energy system in Romania has become. (…) The actual increase in consumption caused by the heat wave is usually between 80 and 120 lei per month, and in homes on the top floor, with large, unshaded glass surfaces, where the air conditioning runs almost continuously, it can exceed 180-230 lei. It is worth noting that this increase is mainly determined by the higher consumption of the home, not by the daily variations in the wholesale price. Even if the price of energy on the day-ahead market increases sharply on hot days, a household customer with a fixed-price contract does not immediately see this volatility in the bill; the direct effect is additional consumption, and any price increases are reflected only when suppliers update their offers or existing contracts expire”, explains the specialist.

According to the head of AEI, while Romania has one of the highest electricity prices in the region, the real question is not why we consume more, but why we can no longer produce enough at the times when we need energy the most.

“When demand increases, Romania ends up importing ever-increasing volumes of electricity, and this dependence is immediately visible in prices. The problem is that our neighbors do not have a surplus either. Greece, Bulgaria, Hungary and other states in South-Eastern Europe are going through the same episode of high consumption. Ukraine continues to absorb significant amounts of energy from the region. Under these conditions, the market no longer functions as a balancing mechanism, but as a competition for a limited resource. Whoever needs the last available megawatt-hour buys it at the highest price, and that price ends up being a benchmark for the entire market. Romania’s real vulnerability is that it has come to depend on imports precisely at the times when energy is most expensive. We do not import cheap energy during periods of European surplus. We import energy when the entire region is in deficit. The difference between the two situations means hundreds of millions of euros that leave the Romanian economy annually”, believes Dumitru Chisăliță.

The specialist points out that, in addition, congestion in the transport networks aggravates the problem and even if in other areas of Europe there is energy available at lower prices, it cannot always reach the southeast of the continent due to infrastructure limitations.

“The result is a fragmented market, in which Romania and neighboring states pay well above the European average. For years, Romania has relied on the advantage of a diversified energy mix: hydropower plants, nuclear reactors, gas and coal-fired power plants, complemented in recent years by renewable energy. But chaotic diversification is no longer enough when the capacities available during peak hours do not cover domestic consumption. Some of the classic groups have been withdrawn or operate on a limited basis, hydropower depends on hydrological conditions, and production from renewable sources remains weather-dependent. Without sufficient flexible capacities and without developed storage systems, imports become the default solution,” notes the cited source.

In Chisăliță‘s opinion, the heat wave of these days sends a clear signal: Romania does not only have a price problem, but also an energy security problem.

“An economy that depends on imports during periods of maximum consumption is an economy vulnerable to any regional shock: heat wave, drought, damage or geopolitical tensions. The discussion should no longer be about how high the temperatures are, but about how prepared the energy system is to cope with these situations. Because hot summers are no longer exceptions, but the new normal”, says the AEI president.

He believes that if investments in new production capacities, storage and networks are not accelerated, Romania risks transforming imports from a balancing solution into a structural dependency, which leads to a vulnerability of the SEN.