According to the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP), Romania’s domestic energy consumption will increase slowly over the next three years, from 32.27 million tons of oil equivalent in 2018 to 32.75 million toe, in 2021 (+1.48%). Also, the shares of the main categories of primary resources will keep the same, with a slight advance for natural gas, from 21%, anticipated for 2018, to 23.6% in 2021.
CNSP anticipates that the population will maintain in 2021 a consumption similar to that in 2018 – 7.6 million toe, compared with 7.53 million toe, while consumption in the economy will increase by almost 11% from 16.5 million toe, to 18.3 million toe. The transport and telecommunications sector will have the most important contribution to this advance (+13.67%, one million toe more), according to the CNSP, while the largest percentage change to be recorded by the construction sector (+20.27%, a nominal advance of 0.75 million toe).
Dependence on energy imports will decrease, anticipates CNSP, mainly for petroleum products, even though crude oil imports will increase slightly each year from 2018 to 2021.
On the domestic side, the Commission expects natural gas production to grow by 4-5% each year by 2021. Also, on the rise (more than 3%) would by the hydroelectric, wind and photovoltaic power generation. Coal production will remain constant, CNSP anticipates, after an annual decline of 1.2% in 2018. Major drops will be noted in the use of firewood, biomass included, especially in the years 2020-2021, with variations in almost 3% compared to the previous year.
As a result, the share of natural gas in the national energy mix would increase by 3.2 percentage points (pp) in 2021 compared to 2018 (+4.4 pp versus 2017). Also, on the rise, but less spectacular, will be the hydroelectric, wind and photovoltaic energy, by 0.4 pp in 2021, compared to 2018. The shares of coal (-0.8 pp), crude (-0.8 pp), firewood, biomass included (-1.4 pp) and nuclear energy (-0.5 pp) will reduce.