The confirmation of Romania’s rating by the international financial rating agency Moody’s was in the base scenario, and the negative outlook is a warning with a deadline, namely that the probability of a downgrade in the next 12-24 months remains higher than that of an improvement, believes economic consultant Adrian Negrescu.

“The confirmation from Moody’s this evening was the base case. In essence, Romania gained nothing, it avoided a loss. Beyond the positive aspects of the decision – we avoided Junk with the consequences – the negative outlook confirmed by Moody’s is, in the language of the agencies, a warning with a deadline: the probability of a downgrade in the next 12-24 months remains higher than that of an improvement. Romania now has a negative outlook at all three major agencies simultaneously – Fitch, Moody’s and S&P – a rare configuration for a member state of the European Union”, Negrescu wrote on his Facebook page.

According to him, the main reason for maintaining the negative outlook is eminently political. Moody’s notes that the censure motion adopted in May led to the fall of the government, and the fragmentation in Parliament delayed the formation of a new executive, after two failed attempts.

“The agency starts from the premise that a government will be installed after the summer vacation and emphasizes that it must function from the beginning of autumn so that the 2027 budget can be adopted by the end of this year. Early parliamentary elections are considered unlikely, Romania has not organized anything like this since 1989. A dry, realistic radiography of a political scene in which it seems that only the electoral speech matters. The only good news, on the political scene, comes from Parliament where the adoption of the PNRR laws saved investors from this negative perception”, emphasized Negrescu.

He recalled that the next test is the S&P Global Ratings assessment, scheduled for October 2, 2026, and until then the state is preparing its financing under the minimum protection of the investment grade rating – “a protection that works, but which is expensive to pay for”.

“This is the reality after today’s verdict: Romania is not in junk, but it is already paying as if it were. Exiting the negative outlook requires, in the agencies’ terms, the simultaneous reduction of the budget and current account deficits, supported by the return of economic growth – three conditions that, in 2026, contradict each other. Will we have a government capable of coming up with a coherent reform program, with very clear targets, capable of reducing the budget deficit to 5% in 2027? Will there be a will on the political scene to restructure the public apparatus, bankrupt state-owned companies, the way Romania is administered and public money is spent? We have a window of maximum 1 year in which we can restructure Romania from the ground up. A year in which we should see, among other things, administrative reform – an essential condition for restructuring public spending. Is the political class capable of acting in the national interest?”, the financial consultant points out, according to Agerpres.

Moody’s Ratings on Friday reaffirmed Romania’s sovereign rating at “Baa3”, keeping Romania in the investment grade category. At the same time, the financial rating agency maintained its negative outlook, highlighting the high risks of implementing medium-term fiscal adjustment, despite progress made in reducing the budget deficit.