Global demand for energy per capita will peak in 2030 thanks to new technology and stricter government policies, the World Energy Council has predicted, quoted by The Guardian.

In a report on a range of scenarios for global energy use, the group of academics, energy companies and public sector bodies outlined a “fundamentally new world for the energy industry” calling it the “grand transition”. The report, launched before the World Energy Congress in Istanbul, forecast demand per person for energy – including transport fuels, heating and electricity – would begin to fall after 2030. But while overall per capita energy demand would begin to fall, demand for electricity would double by 2060, the council said, requiring greater infrastructure investment in smart systems that promote energy efficiency.

Ged Davis, executive chair of scenarios at the World Energy Council, said: “Historically people have talked about peak oil but now disruptive trends are leading energy experts to consider the implications of peak demand.”

The council drew up three scenarios to assess different areas of energy use. The range of outcomes could see fossil fuels provide anything from 50% to 70% of energy by 2060, said the council, which is the UN-accredited global energy body.

The “phenomenal” growth of solar and wind energy is predicted to continue, while coal and oil will fade from the energy mix. Solar and wind accounted for 4% of power generation in 2014 but could supply up to 39% by 2060, while hydroelectric power and nuclear are also expected to grow. Under two of the scenarios, oil production will peak in 2030 at between 94m barrels per day (bpd) and 103 mb/d, although the third scenario would see it peak and plateau at 104 m/bpd for a decade from 2040.

But fossil fuels will remain the number one source of energy, having fallen just 5% since 1970 from 86% of energy supply to 81% in 2014.