Exceeding the threshold of 9-10 lei/liter for fuels becomes realistic in Romania, if The price of crude oil is stabilizing at 90-100 dollars/barrel, following the conflict in the Middle East, which brings higher transport costs, pressure on logistics chains, rising food prices and persistent inflation, warns the president of the Smart Energy Association, Dumitru Chisăliță.
“February 28, 2026 could remain a reference date for energy markets. Iran’s attack and the subsequent retaliation have reignited tensions around the Strait of Hormuz – the most sensitive point of the global energy infrastructure. When Hormuz trembles, the entire global economic chain trembles. Approximately one fifth of the oil consumed daily in the world transits through this strip of water between Iran and Oman. It is not just a maritime route. It is a global energy tap. And the markets do not wait for the tap to be completely turned off – they react to the mere possibility”, explains the president of the AEI, in an analysis quoted by Agerpres.
According to him, the price of oil reflects not only the balance between supply and demand, but also the anticipation of risk. In his opinion, what we will see on Monday, with the opening of the stock markets, will be the “geopolitical risk premium”, a premium built in by traders to compensate for uncertainty about oil supplies.
“If the barrel goes up from 73 to 75, 80, 90 or 100 dollars, it is not a simple stock market variation. This is an economic multiplier: higher transportation costs, pressure on logistics chains, rising food prices, persistent inflation. For Romania, where over half of the price of fuel is taxation, the impact is not linear – but it is inevitable. Romania is not on the military front line, but it is on the global market front line. Oil is an international commodity, and the price is formed globally. If Asia pays more for oil from the Gulf, competition for other sources – Africa, the USA, the North Sea – increases. Prices align. Nobody buys cheaply in an expensive market”, specifies Dumitru Chisăliță.
He emphasizes that energy is a basic cost for any economy, and the increase in oil prices means that industry produces more expensively, agriculture pays more for fuel and fertilizers, and transportation transfers the cost to the consumer.
Inflation, which had begun to moderate in Europe, may receive a new impetus just as central banks are trying to relax monetary policy, warns Chisăliță.
“Before the escalation, the market was already pricing in the risk. The benchmark (Brent) prices were testing the highs of the last few months, around 72-73 dollars/barrel. The scenarios analyzed by the markets are clear: persistence of tensions without a real blockage: +10-20 dollars/barrel of “geopolitical premium”; serious disruptions to exports: over 90-100 dollars/barrel; major blockage of Hormuz: global crisis scenario, with extreme volatility. The price is not rising because supply has disappeared, but because the risk of disruption is becoming credible,” says the head of the AEI.
In this context, the OPEC cartel and the expanded OPEC+ format may try to temper the market by increasing production. Major economies can temporarily release strategic reserves, but these measures can cushion the shock, but they do not eliminate military risk, cannot guarantee the safety of ships, nor geopolitical stability. In addition, the real capacity for rapid production growth is limited. Not every barrel “on paper” can instantly reach the market.
“When oil jumps on the stock market, the real question is simple: how much will reach the pump and in how long? The pump price follows international quotes with a lag of several days to 2-3 weeks. It depends on: existing stocks in warehouses, refinery contracts, the exchange rate (oil is quoted in dollars), the commercial policy of large networks. If the barrel increases by 10-20 dollars, the effect is felt progressively, not overnight – but it rarely remains only on paper”, mentions Chisăliță.
Given that the approximate structure of fuel prices in Romania is as follows: 50-55% tax (excise duties + VAT), 30-35% product cost (crude oil + refining), and the rest distribution and margin, this means that an increase in the price of oil by 10 dollars/barrel brings an additional 70 bani/liter, an increase of 20 dollars/barrel represents 1 leu/liter, and +30 dollars/barrel is equivalent to 2.5 lei/liter.
“If crude oil stabilizes at 90-100 dollars, exceeding the threshold of 9-10 lei/liter becomes realistic. The conflict in a strategic energy region means a globally distributed cost: consumers pay at the pump, companies pay in operational costs, states pay through budget pressure and inflation, central banks pay by postponing monetary easing. For Romania, vulnerability does not come only from oil imports, but from integration into the European economy. If Germany or Italy slow down due to expensive energy, the effect quickly reaches Bucharest. What comes next? Everything depends on the duration and scale. Moderate escalation: temporary growth, high volatility, then stabilization. Prolonged escalation: oil over 100 dollars, reaccelerated inflation, pressure on interest rates. Regional expansion: risk of a global energy crisis,” shows the AEI president.
In this context, oil remains, in 2026, the barometer of geopolitical stability, as the world economy still runs on fossil fuels.
“The question is not just how much the barrel will rise. The pragmatic question is how much fiscal space, how much economic resilience and how much budgetary discipline does Romania have to absorb another major energy shock? The answer is not found in the Persian Gulf. It is found in domestic policies, in the structure of the economy and in how quickly we manage to reduce dependence on global volatility,” added Dumitru Chisăliță.