The National Bank of Romania (BNR) anticipates a slight increase in the annual inflation rate during the final months of 2026, followed by a gradual decline, bringing it back within the target range by the first quarter of 2028, according to the November 2026 edition of the Inflation Report, approved by the institution’s Board of Directors. At the same time, the BNR has decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per annum. “According to the forecast in the Report, the annual inflation rate will rise slightly in the final months of the current year, primarily due to the expected impact of recent price increases in fuels and energy, as well as the movement of the leu’s exchange rate. Subsequently, however, it will follow a gradually declining path, re-entering the target range in the first quarter of 2028. This will be driven by disinflationary base effects-stemming from price hikes caused in 2026 by the energy shock and severe drought-as well as by intensifying disinflationary pressures from fundamental factors, particularly the aggregate demand deficit. The latter is expected to widen further in the second half of 2026-amidst fiscal consolidation and the energy crisis-before gradually narrowing, though it will remain on a trajectory noticeably higher than previously projected,” states a press release from the National Bank of Romania (BNR), sent to AGERPRES on Thursday.
The central bank notes that “uncertainties and risks persist regarding the future evolution of electricity prices and the trajectory of crude oil prices, with implications for the costs of other raw materials and the international prices of certain intermediate and finished goods.”
Furthermore, uncertainties remain concerning the measures that might be adopted to continue fiscal consolidation beyond the current year, in line with the medium-term fiscal-structural plan agreed upon with the European Commission and the excessive deficit procedure. According to the National Bank of Romania (BNR), the conflict in the Middle East and the energy crisis continue to pose risks to economic activity and the medium-term inflation outlook.
“The conflict in the Middle East and the energy crisis also continue to generate significant uncertainties and risks regarding the outlook for economic activity-and, by extension, the medium-term inflation trajectory-through their potential impact, via various channels, on purchasing power and consumer confidence, as well as on business activity and corporate profits. This includes their influence on economic and inflation dynamics at the European and global levels, as well as on the perception of risk regarding the region, which in turn affects financing costs,” the statement notes.
In this context, the central bank emphasizes that the full absorption and utilization of European funds are essential for partially offsetting the contractionary effects of fiscal consolidation and the Middle East conflict, as well as for implementing necessary structural reforms, including the energy transition.
Furthermore, the BNR considers the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, as well as the stance of central banks in the region, to be particularly relevant.