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IEA revised upward the estimates regarding oil demand

22 January 2024

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has again upgraded its estimates of oil demand growth in 2024, although its projections remain lower than OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) expectations and said the market is well supplied following the increase in production non-OPEC countries, Reuters reports.

The Paris-based organization expects global oil consumption to rise by 1.24 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while OPEC expects an advance of 2.25 million barrels per day. It is the IEA’s third upward revision in as many months and comes amid an improving economic outlook, lower oil prices in the fourth quarter and an expansion in China’s petrochemical sector.

Also, the International Energy Agency predicts that the demand for oil will reach its peak level by 2030, as the world switches to ecological fuels, an opinion that is not shared by OPEC, according to Agerpres.

Although the conflict in the Middle East causes supply concerns, the IEA estimates that – barring significant supply disruptions – the market will be well supplied in 2024, and there could even be a surplus if the OPEC+ group (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) does not comply with the cut plan of production established in the second quarter.

On Thursday, Brent crude was trading at around $78 a barrel, after a roughly 10% decline in 2023, when it ended the year at $77.04.

The IEA also expects global oil supplies to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day to a high of 103.5 million bpd in 2024, following production increases in the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada .

The International Energy Agency is the main energy advisory body of the 29 most developed countries. The agency was established in response to the first oil shock of 1973-1974, to coordinate the release of oil from reserve stocks.

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