Romania is going through the most difficult cold season for its energy system in the last decade, according to analysts at Frames. The two reactors at Cernavodă-which typically provide about one-fifth of the country’s electricity-have been offline for nearly three months. Drought has caused the Danube’s water level to drop below the point required for the nuclear power plant to cool its facilities, while this same lack of water has severely curtailed output from hydroelectric plants. The national energy system has been on alert since August 1st. According to Frames analysts, Romania has temporarily lost the very sources that provided consistent, low-cost generation and ensured grid balance at any time of day.
“The shortfall is immediately reflected in prices. On October 28th, the Romanian day-ahead market recorded the highest average price among the 34 European markets tracked daily-approximately 311 euros per megawatt-hour. On the same day, the price was around 249 euros in Germany and 253 euros in France, while in the Nordic countries, it remained below 10 euros. During the evening peak-between 9:15 PM and 9:30 PM-the price in Bucharest climbed above 434 euros per megawatt-hour. While these figures do not immediately hit household bills-which are partially shielded by fixed-price contracts-they quickly translate into higher costs for industry and commerce, and eventually filter through to consumer prices,” the Frames analysts state.
Mintia: A Lifeline for This Winter
The greatest hope for the cold months ahead lies with Mintia. The new combined-cycle gas power plant, built by the Mass Global group, has a total designed capacity of approximately 1,700 megawatts and represents an investment of around 1.4 billion euros.
The first turbine began supplying energy to the grid on October 15, and the transmission system operator’s schedule anticipates that about 1,000 megawatts will be available by the end of the year-equivalent to nearly 12% of the system’s current operational capacity. Added to this is the 430-megawatt power plant at Iernut-a project delayed by about five years-which is expected to come online, most likely in the first half of 2027.
The role of these power plants is to provide balance, not to lower energy costs. They can generate power at any time, regardless of weather conditions, and are capable of covering the very evening hours during which Romania currently relies on high-priced energy imports. However, the cost of electricity generated at Mintia remains tied to the price of natural gas and carbon emission certificates.
“Mintia is excellent news for system security this winter, as it reduces the risk of Romania remaining dependent on imports precisely during peak hours. We should not, however, expect a gas-fired power plant to make energy cheap. It stabilizes the system, but the price of the energy produced depends on the gas market,” explains Adrian Negrescu, manager at Frames.
The 5,800-Megawatt Target and the Condition Regarding Coal
The new Minister of Energy, Dumitru Chisăliță, has put forward an ambitious target: the connection of 5,800 megawatts of new generation capacity by the end of 2027-comprising both renewable sources and power plants capable of operating regardless of weather conditions.
The Minister has also set a clear condition for coal-fired power plants: they may remain in operation until sufficient new capacity is available to replace them. This represents a shift in approach compared to recent years, during which Romania had committed to shutting down existing capacity before building replacements.
Among the announced priorities is energy storage-via batteries and pumped-storage hydroelectric plants-with the stated goal of reducing costly imports during certain time intervals.
The Minister intends to revive offshore wind projects in the Black Sea, while gas extraction from deep-water blocks is scheduled for the first half of 2027. Restarting the reactors at Cernavodă has been described as a national emergency, alongside the implementation of technical solutions to prevent a recurrence of the current situation during years marked by drought. “The 5,800-megawatt target is realistic only if the state stops acting as a brake. Private investors have proven that they can build quickly. The problem is that grid infrastructure, permitting, and grid connections are progressing several times slower than the actual construction sites. Furthermore, the decision to keep coal-fired power plants operational until we have suitable replacements is a common-sense approach-one that should have been adopted from the very beginning,” says Adrian Negrescu.
The solar revolution awaiting the grid
The most rapid transformation of the Romanian energy system has taken place on rooftops and on agricultural land converted into photovoltaic parks.
According to an analysis by Frames, the number of “prosumers” (producers-consumers) surpassed 300,000 at the beginning of this year, with an installed capacity of approximately 3,400 megawatts-more than double the figure from the end of 2023.
In the first eight months of 2026, over 2,500 new megawatts were connected to the grid, more than half of which came from solar power, with over 660 megawatts dedicated to storage. The transmission system operator projected an additional 2,000 megawatts by the end of the year, half of which would be in battery storage.
The next wave consists of large-scale hybrid projects. The Ogrezeni park in Giurgiu County, developed by the Austrian company Enery, combines 534 megawatts of photovoltaic panels with a storage system exceeding one gigawatt-hour. The investment, valued at over 460 million euros, is expected to be completed in the summer of 2027.
“This is a large-scale project that demonstrates the existing potential; however, everything depends on how the state treats this type of private investment-whether it supports such ventures through every available means, including fiscal incentives, or whether it merely resorts to overtaxing those with the courage to undertake such business in Romania,” states Negrescu.
The value of these projects lies in their combination. Solar panels generate low-cost power at midday, while batteries store that energy for the evening-precisely when Romania currently faces its highest electricity prices.
As it stands, the system operates in reverse. At midday, Romania produces more than it consumes, selling the surplus to neighboring countries at low prices. In the evening, after sunset, it buys that energy back at prices several times higher. The system currently has approximately 2,000 megawatts of battery storage, whereas experts estimate that at least 3,500 megawatts are needed to effectively harness the wind and solar capacity already installed.
Frames estimates that if major hybrid projects, the gas-fired power plants at Mintia and Iernut, and Black Sea gas extraction come online according to the announced schedule, Romania has a strong chance of becoming a net electricity exporter again by 2027 and moving closer to energy independence.
The critical factor is the grid. The connection of prosumers and photovoltaic parks is progressing much more slowly than their construction; only 41% of projects that received technical approval were actually connected within a year and a half. On very sunny days, the grid in certain areas reaches its capacity limit, meaning the energy produced cannot be absorbed. Transelectrica has a ten-year investment plan exceeding 2 billion euros, but the pace must be accelerated to keep up with private-sector investments. “Energy independence no longer depends on how much we produce, but on how much we manage to transport and store. We already have thousands of megawatts of solar capacity operating at half-capacity because the grid cannot absorb the output. If Transelectrica resolves the transmission bottlenecks, hybrid energy parks-like the one in Ogrezeni-could completely shift the system’s balance as early as 2027,” states Adrian Negrescu.
What this means for energy prices
The question that matters for households and businesses is whether increased domestic production will lead to lower bills.
According to analysts at Frames, the answer has two parts. First, Romania will not have a wholesale price completely decoupled from the European one. The Bucharest energy exchange operates in tandem with regional markets, and electricity naturally flows toward the market offering the highest price-limited only by the capacity of interconnection lines. Consequently, the benchmark price will remain close to those seen in Hungary, Bulgaria, and the rest of Central Europe.
The second part is more encouraging. With more energy available during the evening, Romania could move away from the situation-seen as recently as late October-where it pays the highest price in the region.
Frames estimates that price spikes will become less frequent and less severe, while the gap between low-cost midday hours and high-cost evening hours will narrow. When interconnection capacity is fully saturated, the domestic price could even fall below that of neighboring countries.
Long-term bilateral contracts with renewable energy producers, set at fixed prices, can provide industry and suppliers with cheaper, more stable energy compared to daily purchases on the exchange. For prosumers, the benefit is direct: energy produced and consumed on-site does not need to be purchased at market rates. “We shouldn’t promise Romanians electricity at half the price, because the market is European. However, we can promise them something just as valuable: a stable price-free from the shocks seen in recent years-and a country that no longer relies on energy imports at the highest rates in Europe. For an economy grappling with high inflation, energy price stability is one of the most effective levers for disinflation,” concludes Adrian Negrescu.
In the short term, Romania needs a bit of luck and punctuality: better flow rates on the Danube to allow for the restart of the Cernavodă plant, and the timely commissioning of the Mintia power plant.
In the medium term, the energy system possesses all the ingredients for a genuine transformation: record private investment in solar power and storage, domestic natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, and a government target of adding 5,800 megawatts of new capacity by the end of 2027.
The weak link remains the transmission and distribution grid. The Frames analysis further notes that the speed at which this infrastructure is modernized will determine whether 2027 becomes a year of energy independence-or simply another year where cheap midday energy goes to waste, while expensive energy must be imported in the evening.
