Coface estimates that Romania’s economy will grow by 2.7% this year, in a baseline scenario, after a 2.5% evolution in 2014, writes Mediafax. “Thus, under the basic scenario, the advance of real GDP for 2015 is estimated at 2.7%, with the possibility to vary between 2.5 and 3%, while agriculture will register a dynamic close to the long-term trend”, says the press release of Coface.
Growth in 2015 will be supported by private consumption, the most important contribution of gross capital formation, both in the private and public realm, a 0 input from agriculture to economic growth and a negative contribution from foreign trade, shows Coface.
Constantin Coman, director of Coface Romania, said that this year private consumption will grow more timid than last year, mainly because of debt weighing on household budgets. This item appears in the data on the balance of loans to households and companies, a reduction of lending level and deposit development.
“The Romanian economy continues without engines of sustainable growth in the medium term. Thus, consumption and industrial production, the main pillars that supported growth in 2014 will decelerate this year, the first amid reduced lending appetite and continuation of reducing debt, and the second amid weakening exports, which will be outweighed by the dynamics of imports for the first time in four years”, said Coman.
IMF and the European Commission anticipate that Romania will record an economic growth this year of 2.5%.
The company estimates for the beginning of the year an annual inflation of below 1%, then it will record an increasing trend towards central bank target of 2.5% in the second half. Thus, 2015 annualized average inflation will not exceed 2%.
In terms of progress on insolvencies, “we estimate for 2015 a large number of insolvencies, with effect on jobs and the economy in general. The danger comes from the medium and large companies. It remains the same concern for the Romanian economy, we will see insolvencies of medium and large enterprises, especially in the context of ANAF audits and cases of tax evasion”, said Constantin Coman.
The highest expectations for 2015 come from the gross capital formation, financed by public spending and increasing absorption of EU funds. “Microeconomic environment remains unstable, marked by periods of very extensive time for collection of receivables which supplies high interdependence between companies”, added Coman.
Energy forecasts at Spring Cocktail 2015 – mixed by energynomics.ro
This year’s forecasts of energy sector, an area that engages along the value chain nearly 500,000 jobs, will be able summarized and discussed during Spring Cocktail 2015, a special event done by energynomics.ro. On March 26, expectations, high hopes and personal efforts of the chief decision makers from leading companies of the field will face the estimates made by experienced specialists in business intelligence.