A cost-benefit analysis conducted by ANRE for 2014 indicated no risk of overcompensation, therefore it argues that “no measures are needed to reduce the number of green certificates for manufacturers who will be accredited after 1 January 2016 to the present legal provisions.”
“From the cost-benefit analysis carried out for 2014, with an updated analysis, at an aggregate level for each category of technology of E-SRE (electricity from renewable energy sources), taking into account the indicators resulting from mediation costs and as the anticipated capacities are put into operation with no identifiable risk of overcompensation”, shows the ANRE report.
The energy market regulator has found that specific investments in new projects of renewable energy come with the following costs: 1.48 million Euro for 1 MW installed wind power plants, 2 million Euro per 1 MW installed in new hydro plants, 3 million Euro per 1 MW installed in biomass cogeneration plants and 1.25 million Euro for 1MW installed in photovoltaic plants.
The analysis mentions that the forecast for the electricity price on the wholesale market which formed the basis of the findings was made from the PZU price of 36.79 euros / MWh, in the last 12 months preceding the month of analysis and using the average coefficient of price increase electricity by 1.1%, resulting in average coefficient of increase in electricity prices of future contracts (baseload) concluded on the European Energy Exchange AG – EEX (Leipzig stock exchange) for the period 2015-2020, extrapolated to the whole period of analysis.
The forecast for the net electricity consumption resulting from the forecast of gross domestic electricity consumption, which was deducted from the Technological Own Consumption value, the value for the year 2014 was 46.7 TWh. The forecast for gross domestic electricity consumption was determined based on the value recorded in 2014, 55.8 TWh, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics and using an equal to GDP growth of 2.8%, according to the methodological provisions, increase announced in March 5, 2015 by the National Commission for Prognosis in projection of the main macroeconomic indicators for the period 2015-2018.