Trade in a host of Europe’s emerging economies and nearby Turkey will be hit if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a transition deal in place, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said.
The EBRD, which pumps in billions of euros into eastern Europe and Turkey each year, said 6.8 percent of the combined region’s domestic value-added exports would be affected by any potential disruptions to trade linkages.
The share would be highest for Cyprus, Turkey and Poland, for which the British market accounts for 7.9 to 9.1 percent of total export volume, it added, according to Reuters.
A no-deal Brexit could cause pain not only via direct trade but also indirect exports through Europe’s interlinked value chain, the EBRD report said. It cited the example of car parts exported from Slovakia to Germany, where they are assembled and exported as a final product to Britain.