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Global investments in E&P are expected to fall in 2020 by $100 bln, or 17%

Energynomics

The use of gasoline and other fuels is dropping as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production, sending oil prices to their lowest level in a generation.

The once mighty oil industry is shrinking quickly around the world, hunkering down in survival mode.

Global investments in exploration and production are expected to fall in 2020 by $100 billion, or 17 percent below last year, according to Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm based in Oslo. That drop is only the latest jolt to an industry that has been tightening budgets for years. The $446 billion that the industry is expected to invest is just over half the $880 billion it spent on exploration and production in 2014, according to The New York Times.

As much as 20 percent, or 20 million barrels a day, of oil demand may be lost as the global economy slows, according to the International Energy Agency. That is roughly equivalent to eliminating all U.S. consumption.

To make matters worse, Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing oil production to regain market share from American oil companies that increased production and exports in recent years.

The Trump administration has been trying to convince Saudi Arabia and Russia that they should cut production to help stabilize the oil market; President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia discussed energy markets in a call on Monday. But the energy demand destroyed by the virus now overshadows anything that Saudi Arabia or Russia could do to reduce exports.

Global oil benchmark prices hover around $20 a barrel — levels not seen in a generation — and regional prices in West Texas and North Dakota have fallen even further, to around $10 a barrel. That is about a quarter of the price that shale operators typically need to cover the costs of pulling oil out of the ground. If these prices persist, a big wave of bankruptcies is inevitable by the end of the year, experts say. “The picture looks bleak,” said Trent Latshaw, president of Latshaw Drilling, an oil service company active in Texas and Oklahoma with only 10 of its 41 rigs currently deployed. “We have never had this situation where you have a huge increase in supply and a huge decrease in demand at the same time. Oil prices are down to $20 a barrel, and we don’t know where the bottom is.”

Autor: Energynomics

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