In a synthetic article trying to anticipate the main directions in 2019, Ziarul Financiar includes 5 trends in the energy industry.
- Possible insolvencies of energy suppliers as a result of the new 2% turnover tax imposed by the government.
- OMV and Exxon have to announce in the first quarter of 2019 whether the Black Sea gas field is commercial feasible.
- The liberalization of the energy market is virtually canceled for domestic consumers in the context in which the price of energy will be capped.
- The plan for Hidroelectrica IPO will most likely be frozen in light of the new taxes, despite the fact that it is on the table for years.
- The price of gasoline will stagnate or fall in 2019, according to analysts quoted by Ziarul Financiar, continuing to the trend at the end of 2018.
MACRO Economic growth will remain solid unless a serious crisis strikes from abroad. Romania will have an economic growth of between 3.5% and 4%.
MACRO The Romanian Leu will lose ground against the euro, but not significantly – the average exchange rate will reach 4.7 lei for an euro (4.66 lei/euro, at the beginning of the year).
BANKS There are new rules in force for banks in 2019, after the Ministry of Finance introduce the “greed tax” and the Parliament approved a legislative package, and the NBR decided to limit the indebtedness of the population. Lending may slow down.
FOREIGN INVESTMENTS The value of investment projects will amount to 2.5 billion euros, with 24.000 new jobs created. New projects are expected in automotive, IT, financial services and outsourcing.
BUILDINGS The companies will be boosted by the coming into force of the measures announced by the government in December, including the exemption for the employer from paying the social contributions, the reduction of the social contributions of the employees by 3.75% and the establishment of a minimum gross wage at 3,000 lei. Several investment projects worth more than 100 million euros are in progress, being built by both Romanian and foreign companies.
TELECOM Internet services will continue to be the growth driver of the telecom market. The demand for Internet of Things will continue to accelerate.